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Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Catalina Lauf 53%

Madison Cawthorn 15.0%

Jim Oberweis 8.9%

Spencer Roach 2.8%

Polymarket

$18,352 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 53%

Madison Cawthorn 15.0%

Jim Oberweis 8.9%

Spencer Roach 2.8%

Polymarket

$18,352 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,511 Vol.

53%

Madison Cawthorn

$756 Vol.

15%

Jim Oberweis

$2,084 Vol.

9%

Spencer Roach

$0 Vol.

3%

Bob Rommel

$0 Vol.

2%

Jim Schwartzel

$0 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds' departure for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race has opened Florida's safely Republican 19th District, drawing a crowded primary field dominated by out-of-state challengers emphasizing America First credentials ahead of the August 18 vote. Trader consensus prices Catalina Lauf at 52.5% implied probability to win the Republican primary, propelled by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's February endorsement, a strong small-donor haul from prior Illinois campaigns, and field consolidation after Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno passed on entering in late February and Johnny Fratto dropped to back Madison Cawthorn. Local businessman Jim Schwartzel trails at 17% with $1.3 million cash-on-hand and Southwest Florida roots; Cawthorn at 14.6% leverages past congressional name recognition and self-funding despite his North Carolina ouster; Jim Oberweis lags at 8.9% despite $2.9 million cash, hindered by Illinois ties. No public polling exists; qualifying deadline is June 12.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,352
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds' departure for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race has opened Florida's safely Republican 19th District, drawing a crowded primary field dominated by out-of-state challengers emphasizing America First credentials ahead of the August 18 vote. Trader consensus prices Catalina Lauf at 52.5% implied probability to win the Republican primary, propelled by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's February endorsement, a strong small-donor haul from prior Illinois campaigns, and field consolidation after Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno passed on entering in late February and Johnny Fratto dropped to back Madison Cawthorn. Local businessman Jim Schwartzel trails at 17% with $1.3 million cash-on-hand and Southwest Florida roots; Cawthorn at 14.6% leverages past congressional name recognition and self-funding despite his North Carolina ouster; Jim Oberweis lags at 8.9% despite $2.9 million cash, hindered by Illinois ties. No public polling exists; qualifying deadline is June 12.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,352
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 53%, followed by "Jim Schwartzel" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $18.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Catalina Lauf" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.