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Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-09 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Justin Story 35%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 8%

Howard Steven Rance 4.9%

Polymarket

$18,513 Vol.

Justin Story 35%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 8%

Howard Steven Rance 4.9%

Polymarket

$18,513 Vol.

Justin Story

$7,596 Vol.

35%

Marcus Carter

$297 Vol.

8%

Jorge Malavet

$1,964 Vol.

8%

Howard Steven Rance

$7,748 Vol.

5%

Thomas Chalifoux

$909 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 51% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his substantial self-funding—over $2 million reported through early 2026—affording superior advertising and ground game advantages, bolstered by name recognition from his competitive 2024 campaign. Justin Story trails at 31.5%, buoyed by his background as a former Marine Corps F/A-18 pilot and sixth-generation Central Floridian appealing to veteran and local voters. A fragmented five-candidate field dilutes opposition, with Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, and Howard Steven Rance lagging amid limited resources. Recent GOP passage of Gov. DeSantis' redrawn congressional map last week shifts FL-09 to a Trump +18 lean, heightening stakes ahead of the August 18 primary but not altering primary dynamics. No public polls available; odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of fundraising edges.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,513
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 51% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his substantial self-funding—over $2 million reported through early 2026—affording superior advertising and ground game advantages, bolstered by name recognition from his competitive 2024 campaign. Justin Story trails at 31.5%, buoyed by his background as a former Marine Corps F/A-18 pilot and sixth-generation Central Floridian appealing to veteran and local voters. A fragmented five-candidate field dilutes opposition, with Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, and Howard Steven Rance lagging amid limited resources. Recent GOP passage of Gov. DeSantis' redrawn congressional map last week shifts FL-09 to a Trump +18 lean, heightening stakes ahead of the August 18 primary but not altering primary dynamics. No public polls available; odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of fundraising edges.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,513
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 56%, followed by "Justin Story" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $18.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Justin Story" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.