FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Dan Green 100.0%

Marcus Carter <1%

Thomas Chalifoux <1%

Jorge Malavet <1%

$191,207 Vol.

Aug 17, 2026

Marcus Carter

$2,955 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux

$62,915 Vol.

Jorge Malavet

$5,021 Vol.

Howard Steven Rance

$10,668 Vol.

Justin Story

$12,109 Vol.

Ben Butler

$43,845 Vol.

Dan Green

$31,520 Vol.

Yes

Jorge Martinez

$20,665 Vol.

Steve Rance

$1,509 Vol.

Dan Green 100.0%

Marcus Carter <1%

Thomas Chalifoux <1%

Jorge Malavet <1%

$191,207 Vol.

Aug 17, 2026

Marcus Carter

$2,955 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux

$62,915 Vol.

Jorge Malavet

$5,021 Vol.

Howard Steven Rance

$10,668 Vol.

Justin Story

$12,109 Vol.

Ben Butler

$43,845 Vol.

Dan Green

$31,520 Vol.

Yes

Jorge Martinez

$20,665 Vol.

Steve Rance

$1,509 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Volume

$191,207

End Date

Aug 18, 2026

Market Opened

Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Volume

$191,207

End Date

Aug 18, 2026

Market Opened

Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?

69%

Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?

87%

Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?

95%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan Green" at 100%, followed by "Marcus Carter" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $191.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Dan Green" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marcus Carter" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $191.2K traded on “FL-09 Republican Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Dan Green" in the "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Dan Green" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

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Market Context

Rules

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