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Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Chalifoux 53%

Marcus Carter 8%

Justin Story 7%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Thomas Chalifoux 53%

Marcus Carter 8%

Justin Story 7%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Thomas Chalifoux

$0 Vol.

53%

Marcus Carter

$0 Vol.

8%

Justin Story

$7,527 Vol.

18%

Jorge Malavet

$0 Vol.

7%

Howard Steven Rance

$0 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising—closing 2025 with over $2 million cash on hand from self-funding and prior contributions—and high name recognition as the 2024 GOP nominee who won that primary before narrowly losing the general to incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Recent FEC reports underscore his financial edge over challengers like retired Marine Justin Story (18.5%), positioning the latter as a distant second amid a fragmented field including veteran Marcus Carter (8%), Jorge Malavet (6.5%), and Howard Steven Rance (4.3%). No public polls exist, but the crowded primary on August 18 favors established players; endorsements or late fundraising surges could shift dynamics in this Osceola-heavy battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,527
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising—closing 2025 with over $2 million cash on hand from self-funding and prior contributions—and high name recognition as the 2024 GOP nominee who won that primary before narrowly losing the general to incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Recent FEC reports underscore his financial edge over challengers like retired Marine Justin Story (18.5%), positioning the latter as a distant second amid a fragmented field including veteran Marcus Carter (8%), Jorge Malavet (6.5%), and Howard Steven Rance (4.3%). No public polls exist, but the crowded primary on August 18 favors established players; endorsements or late fundraising surges could shift dynamics in this Osceola-heavy battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,527
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 53%, followed by "Justin Story" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 23, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Justin Story" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.