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Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Catalina Lauf 44%

Madison Cawthorn 15.2%

Jim Oberweis 9.8%

Jim Schwartzel 9.5%

Polymarket

$20,020 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 44%

Madison Cawthorn 15.2%

Jim Oberweis 9.8%

Jim Schwartzel 9.5%

Polymarket

$20,020 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,600 Vol.

44%

Madison Cawthorn

$756 Vol.

15%

Jim Oberweis

$2,106 Vol.

10%

Jim Schwartzel

$118 Vol.

10%

Spencer Roach

$647 Vol.

4%

Bob Rommel

$792 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary set for August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 44.5% implied probability, driven by her strong first-quarter fundraising topping $430,000 and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, positioning the millennial conservative as a fresh MAGA face in a crowded field of 12 candidates after Byron Donalds vacated for the gubernatorial race. Madison Cawthorn holds 15.2% on name recognition and a late February endorsement from dropout Johnny Fratto, while Jim Oberweis (9.7%) and Jim Schwartzel (9.6%) benefit from hefty cash reserves—nearly $3 million and $1.3 million, respectively—enabling ad buys ahead of the April 24 filing deadline. Local ex-state Reps. Spencer Roach and Bob Rommel lag, underscoring fundraising and Trump-aligned bona fides as key differentiators in this safe GOP seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,020
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary set for August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 44.5% implied probability, driven by her strong first-quarter fundraising topping $430,000 and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, positioning the millennial conservative as a fresh MAGA face in a crowded field of 12 candidates after Byron Donalds vacated for the gubernatorial race. Madison Cawthorn holds 15.2% on name recognition and a late February endorsement from dropout Johnny Fratto, while Jim Oberweis (9.7%) and Jim Schwartzel (9.6%) benefit from hefty cash reserves—nearly $3 million and $1.3 million, respectively—enabling ad buys ahead of the April 24 filing deadline. Local ex-state Reps. Spencer Roach and Bob Rommel lag, underscoring fundraising and Trump-aligned bona fides as key differentiators in this safe GOP seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,020
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 45%, followed by "Madison Cawthorn" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Catalina Lauf" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Madison Cawthorn" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.