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Fed
Fed decision in January?
$40m Vol.
$4m today
$4m Liq.
1,369
Ends in about 1 month
74%
No change
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
$72m Vol.
$1m today
$1m Liq.
233
Ends in about 1 year
56%
Kevin Hassett
Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair in 2025?
$9m Vol.
$98.6k today
$298k Liq.
93
Ends in 12 days
93%
No announcement by December 31
Fed decision in March?
$535k Vol.
$297k Liq.
418
Ends in 3 months
50%
25 bps decrease
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$1m Vol.
$726k Liq.
16
21%
3 (75 bps)
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?
$61.9k Liq.
5
<1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
$12m Vol.
$132k Liq.
420
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
$239k Vol.
$68.2k Liq.
1
43%
Cut–Pause–Pause
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
$507k Vol.
$44.5k Liq.
15
Cut–Cut–Pause
Fed decision in April?
$447k Vol.
$292k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
66%
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?
$325k Vol.
$39.7k Liq.
50
1%
Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?
$6.6k Vol.
$17.8k Liq.
98%
June 30, 2026
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?
$10m Vol.
1,094
20%
February 28, 2026
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$10.2k Vol.
$10.0k Liq.
23%
Fed rate cut by...?
$725 Vol.
$85.1k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
81%
April Meeting
Fed abolished in 2025?
$408k Vol.
$9.1k Liq.
Jerome Powell in jail in 2025
$21.6k Vol.
$8.2k Liq.
4
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$1.3k Vol.
$30.1k Liq.
62%
4.3%
Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?
$22.1k Vol.
$17.1k Liq.
2
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
$474 Vol.
$107k Liq.
27%
Pause–Cut–Pause
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