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Fed
Fed decision in January?
$48m Vol.
$3m today
$5m Liq.
1,369
Ends in about 1 month
81%
No change
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
$76m Vol.
$1m today
$2m Liq.
239
Ends in about 1 year
57%
Kevin Hassett
Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair in 2025?
$10m Vol.
$104k today
$261k Liq.
87
Ends in 9 days
95%
No announcement by December 31
Who will Trump announce as Lisa Cook replacement?
$611k Vol.
$53.7k today
$63.2k Liq.
1
Ends in 8 days
99%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
$12m Vol.
$114k Liq.
420
1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$1m Vol.
$726k Liq.
14
21%
2 (50 bps)
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?
$34.9k Liq.
5
<1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?
$335k Vol.
$20.0k Liq.
50
Fed decision in March?
$598k Vol.
$295k Liq.
418
Ends in 3 months
54%
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
$515k Vol.
$50.8k Liq.
15
80%
Cut–Cut–Pause
Fed decision in April?
$459k Vol.
$289k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
63%
Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?
$9.2k Vol.
$9.1k Liq.
98%
March 31, 2026
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?
$19.9k Liq.
1,094
19%
February 28, 2026
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$4.7k Vol.
$21.0k Liq.
Ends in 12 months
11%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$1.7k Vol.
$24.9k Liq.
4.3%
Fed rate cut by...?
$4.0k Vol.
$88.7k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
83%
April Meeting
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
$242k Vol.
$69.5k Liq.
41%
Cut–Pause–Cut
Fed abolished in 2025?
$408k Vol.
$8.7k Liq.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$10.3k Vol.
$11.0k Liq.
22%
Jerome Powell in jail in 2025
$21.6k Vol.
$8.2k Liq.
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