Federal Reserve predictions & odds

Finance·Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$296K Vol.

$65.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

45%

1 (25 bps)

$296K Vol.

$65.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

$7.9K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$7.9K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

$206 Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

27%

$206 Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Politics·Trump

Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by...?

$26.0K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

Ends in 22 days

16%

September 30

$26.0K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

Ends in 22 days

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in January?

$68.2K Vol.

$281K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

61%

No change

$68.2K Vol.

$281K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

$9.9K Vol.

$24.4K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

29%

$9.9K Vol.

$24.4K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?

$18.8K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

31%

$18.8K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in September?

$106M Vol.

$2M today

$5M Liq.

Ends in 6 days

54%

25 bps increase

$106M Vol.

$2M today

$5M Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

$7.4K Vol.

$14.1K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

24%

$7.4K Vol.

$14.1K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Finance·Fed

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

$31.1K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

12%

December 31

$31.1K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$7M Vol.

$248K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

42%

4.0%

$7M Vol.

$248K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Finance·Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$52M Vol.

$53.4K today

$4M Liq.

119

Ends in 4 months

93%

0 (0 bps)

$52M Vol.

$53.4K today

$4M Liq.

119

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in December?

$568K Vol.

$391K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

48%

No change

$568K Vol.

$391K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in October?

$1M Vol.

$846K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

68%

No change

$1M Vol.

$846K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Weather·Science

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

$6M Vol.

$736K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

59%

Anthropic

$6M Vol.

$736K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

Fed rate hike by...?

$3M Vol.

$181K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

66%

October Meeting

$3M Vol.

$181K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Finance·Fed Rates

What will be the next Fed rate change?

$10.7K Vol.

$2.9K Liq.

Ends in over 2 years

83%

Hike

$10.7K Vol.

$2.9K Liq.

Ends in over 2 years

Finance·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$3M Vol.

$451K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December Meeting

$3M Vol.

$451K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$209K Vol.

$17.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$209K Vol.

$17.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$9M Vol.

$119K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

71%

$9M Vol.

$119K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

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Event Status

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Federal Reserve.

Polymarket currently hosts 500 active markets for Federal Reserve that lets you track or trade on predictions like “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $188.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed Decision in September?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed Decision in September?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 54% chance to 25 bps increase. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Federal Reserve predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Federal Reserve shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “Fed Decision in September?” without ever needing to place a trade.

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Federal Reserve prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

Federal Reserve Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket

Frequently Asked Questions

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Federal Reserve prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Federal Reserve predictions & odds

Finance·Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$296K Vol.

$65.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

45%

1 (25 bps)

$296K Vol.

$65.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

$7.9K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$7.9K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

$206 Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

27%

$206 Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Politics·Trump

Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by...?

$26.0K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

Ends in 22 days

16%

September 30

$26.0K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

Ends in 22 days

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in January?

$68.2K Vol.

$281K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

61%

No change

$68.2K Vol.

$281K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

$9.9K Vol.

$24.4K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

29%

$9.9K Vol.

$24.4K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?

$18.8K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

31%

$18.8K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in September?

$106M Vol.

$2M today

$5M Liq.

Ends in 6 days

54%

25 bps increase

$106M Vol.

$2M today

$5M Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Finance·Fed

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

$7.4K Vol.

$14.1K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

24%

$7.4K Vol.

$14.1K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Finance·Fed

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

$31.1K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

12%

December 31

$31.1K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$7M Vol.

$248K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

42%

4.0%

$7M Vol.

$248K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Finance·Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$52M Vol.

$53.4K today

$4M Liq.

119

Ends in 4 months

93%

0 (0 bps)

$52M Vol.

$53.4K today

$4M Liq.

119

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in December?

$568K Vol.

$391K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

48%

No change

$568K Vol.

$391K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Finance·Fed

Fed Decision in October?

$1M Vol.

$846K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

68%

No change

$1M Vol.

$846K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Weather·Science

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

$6M Vol.

$736K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

59%

Anthropic

$6M Vol.

$736K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

Fed rate hike by...?

$3M Vol.

$181K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

66%

October Meeting

$3M Vol.

$181K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Finance·Fed Rates

What will be the next Fed rate change?

$10.7K Vol.

$2.9K Liq.

Ends in over 2 years

83%

Hike

$10.7K Vol.

$2.9K Liq.

Ends in over 2 years

Finance·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$3M Vol.

$451K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December Meeting

$3M Vol.

$451K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Finance·Fed

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$209K Vol.

$17.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$209K Vol.

$17.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$9M Vol.

$119K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

71%

$9M Vol.

$119K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Federal Reserve predictions & odds

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of Federal Reserve prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do Federal Reserve markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top Federal Reserve prediction?

Why use Polymarket for Federal Reserve predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s Federal Reserve odds?

Can I track Federal Reserve predictions without trading?

How do I get started with Federal Reserve markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of Federal Reserve prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do Federal Reserve markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top Federal Reserve prediction?

Why use Polymarket for Federal Reserve predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s Federal Reserve odds?

Can I track Federal Reserve predictions without trading?

How do I get started with Federal Reserve markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

Federal Reserve predictions & odds