Trump's recent public treatment of Kevin Warsh as a close ally since his May 2026 confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Warsh has balanced administration preferences for lower rates with data-driven hawkish signals amid sticky inflation and rising Treasury yields, preserving central bank credibility without direct confrontation. Trader consensus, backed by substantial capital at risk, reflects Warsh's swearing-in, ongoing FOMC communications, and absence of fresh investigations or threats similar to those aimed at Jerome Powell. Potential swing factors include an aggressive rate hike cycle or sharp policy divergence that could test the relationship ahead of year-end data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's recent public treatment of Kevin Warsh as a close ally since his May 2026 confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Warsh has balanced administration preferences for lower rates with data-driven hawkish signals amid sticky inflation and rising Treasury yields, preserving central bank credibility without direct confrontation. Trader consensus, backed by substantial capital at risk, reflects Warsh's swearing-in, ongoing FOMC communications, and absence of fresh investigations or threats similar to those aimed at Jerome Powell. Potential swing factors include an aggressive rate hike cycle or sharp policy divergence that could test the relationship ahead of year-end data releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,421End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's recent public treatment of Kevin Warsh as a close ally since his May 2026 confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Warsh has balanced administration preferences for lower rates with data-driven hawkish signals amid sticky inflation and rising Treasury yields, preserving central bank credibility without direct confrontation. Trader consensus, backed by substantial capital at risk, reflects Warsh's swearing-in, ongoing FOMC communications, and absence of fresh investigations or threats similar to those aimed at Jerome Powell. Potential swing factors include an aggressive rate hike cycle or sharp policy divergence that could test the relationship ahead of year-end data releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,421End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's recent public treatment of Kevin Warsh as a close ally since his May 2026 confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Warsh has balanced administration preferences for lower rates with data-driven hawkish signals amid sticky inflation and rising Treasury yields, preserving central bank credibility without direct confrontation. Trader consensus, backed by substantial capital at risk, reflects Warsh's swearing-in, ongoing FOMC communications, and absence of fresh investigations or threats similar to those aimed at Jerome Powell. Potential swing factors include an aggressive rate hike cycle or sharp policy divergence that could test the relationship ahead of year-end data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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