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World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Péter Magyar 67%

Viktor Orbán 34%

István Kapitány <1%

Klára Dobrev <1%

Polymarket

$45,018,348 Vol.

Péter Magyar 67%

Viktor Orbán 34%

István Kapitány <1%

Klára Dobrev <1%

Polymarket

$45,018,348 Vol.

Market icon

Péter Magyar

$5,840,462 Vol.

67%

Market icon

Viktor Orbán

$5,699,322 Vol.

34%

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István Kapitány

$10,370,857 Vol.

<1%

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Klára Dobrev

$4,513,508 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

László Toroczkai

$12,408,155 Vol.

<1%

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János Lázár

$6,224,356 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Hungary's parliamentary election nine days away on April 12, trader consensus prices Péter Magyar's ascent to Prime Minister at 66.5%, mirroring recent opinion polls where his center-right Tisza Party leads Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters. A March Medián survey showed Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from February—driven by Magyar's strong appeal to under-30 voters (around 65%) amid economic discontent and corruption allegations against the incumbent. Orbán retains rural and older support bases after 16 years in power, sustaining his 33.5% implied probability, while structural factors like Hungary's mixed electoral system (single-member districts plus proportional lists) and potential coalition needs heighten uncertainty for a Tisza majority. Negligible odds for others reflect their lack of polling traction.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$45,018,348
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Hungary's parliamentary election nine days away on April 12, trader consensus prices Péter Magyar's ascent to Prime Minister at 66.5%, mirroring recent opinion polls where his center-right Tisza Party leads Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters. A March Medián survey showed Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from February—driven by Magyar's strong appeal to under-30 voters (around 65%) amid economic discontent and corruption allegations against the incumbent. Orbán retains rural and older support bases after 16 years in power, sustaining his 33.5% implied probability, while structural factors like Hungary's mixed electoral system (single-member districts plus proportional lists) and potential coalition needs heighten uncertainty for a Tisza majority. Negligible odds for others reflect their lack of polling traction.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$45,018,348
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

70%
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Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

74%
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Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

70%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Hungary" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Péter Magyar" at 67%, followed by "Viktor Orbán" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" has generated $45 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" is "Péter Magyar" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Viktor Orbán" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.