Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, which have targeted ballistic missile facilities and military infrastructure but failed to trigger internal collapse. Despite leadership losses and sporadic economic protests echoing 2025-2026 unrest, the regime has intensified repression via IRGC and Basij forces, suppressing dissent without widespread uprisings. Recent IDF strikes on April 1 hit regime suppliers, yet Tehran maintains control, exploiting wartime unity to consolidate power. Historical patterns of quelling revolts (2009, 2019, 2022) and no major defections underpin the 86.5% implied probability against regime fall by June 30, though escalation or protests could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$25,965,796 Vol.
$25,965,796 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$25,965,796 Vol.
$25,965,796 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, which have targeted ballistic missile facilities and military infrastructure but failed to trigger internal collapse. Despite leadership losses and sporadic economic protests echoing 2025-2026 unrest, the regime has intensified repression via IRGC and Basij forces, suppressing dissent without widespread uprisings. Recent IDF strikes on April 1 hit regime suppliers, yet Tehran maintains control, exploiting wartime unity to consolidate power. Historical patterns of quelling revolts (2009, 2019, 2022) and no major defections underpin the 86.5% implied probability against regime fall by June 30, though escalation or protests could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$25,965,796End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, which have targeted ballistic missile facilities and military infrastructure but failed to trigger internal collapse. Despite leadership losses and sporadic economic protests echoing 2025-2026 unrest, the regime has intensified repression via IRGC and Basij forces, suppressing dissent without widespread uprisings. Recent IDF strikes on April 1 hit regime suppliers, yet Tehran maintains control, exploiting wartime unity to consolidate power. Historical patterns of quelling revolts (2009, 2019, 2022) and no major defections underpin the 86.5% implied probability against regime fall by June 30, though escalation or protests could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,966,957End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, which have targeted ballistic missile facilities and military infrastructure but failed to trigger internal collapse. Despite leadership losses and sporadic economic protests echoing 2025-2026 unrest, the regime has intensified repression via IRGC and Basij forces, suppressing dissent without widespread uprisings. Recent IDF strikes on April 1 hit regime suppliers, yet Tehran maintains control, exploiting wartime unity to consolidate power. Historical patterns of quelling revolts (2009, 2019, 2022) and no major defections underpin the 86.5% implied probability against regime fall by June 30, though escalation or protests could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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