Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green's commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, bolstered by a 56% approval rating and sustained respect for his handling of the 2023 Maui wildfires, drives trader consensus toward a 93% implied probability of a Democratic victory. Hawaii's deep-blue partisanship—where Republicans last won the governorship in 2006—and the absence of declared GOP primary challengers as of early April reinforce this outlook, with candidate filing ongoing until June 2 ahead of the August 8 primaries and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, Green's unexpected withdrawal despite his declared re-election bid, or a high-profile Republican recruit amid national trends, though historical base rates favor Democratic incumbents in such matchups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHawaii Governor Election Winner
Hawaii Governor Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$1,709 Vol.
94%
Republican
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green's commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, bolstered by a 56% approval rating and sustained respect for his handling of the 2023 Maui wildfires, drives trader consensus toward a 93% implied probability of a Democratic victory. Hawaii's deep-blue partisanship—where Republicans last won the governorship in 2006—and the absence of declared GOP primary challengers as of early April reinforce this outlook, with candidate filing ongoing until June 2 ahead of the August 8 primaries and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, Green's unexpected withdrawal despite his declared re-election bid, or a high-profile Republican recruit amid national trends, though historical base rates favor Democratic incumbents in such matchups.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,709End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green's commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, bolstered by a 56% approval rating and sustained respect for his handling of the 2023 Maui wildfires, drives trader consensus toward a 93% implied probability of a Democratic victory. Hawaii's deep-blue partisanship—where Republicans last won the governorship in 2006—and the absence of declared GOP primary challengers as of early April reinforce this outlook, with candidate filing ongoing until June 2 ahead of the August 8 primaries and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, Green's unexpected withdrawal despite his declared re-election bid, or a high-profile Republican recruit amid national trends, though historical base rates favor Democratic incumbents in such matchups.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$1,709End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green's commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, bolstered by a 56% approval rating and sustained respect for his handling of the 2023 Maui wildfires, drives trader consensus toward a 93% implied probability of a Democratic victory. Hawaii's deep-blue partisanship—where Republicans last won the governorship in 2006—and the absence of declared GOP primary challengers as of early April reinforce this outlook, with candidate filing ongoing until June 2 ahead of the August 8 primaries and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, Green's unexpected withdrawal despite his declared re-election bid, or a high-profile Republican recruit amid national trends, though historical base rates favor Democratic incumbents in such matchups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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