Incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little's bid for a third term drives trader consensus toward a 93.8% implied probability for a GOP victory in Idaho's November 3 general election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—last Democratic win over three decades ago—and ratings of Solid Republican from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate filings closed March 17 with multiple GOP primary challengers, including grassroots activist Mark Fitzpatrick gaining far-right endorsements like Kootenai County's, yet Little holds incumbency advantages, fundraising leads, and reported backing from Donald Trump ahead of the May 19 Republican primary that will select the nominee. Weak Democratic contenders like Terri Pickens and Maxine Durand face steep historical barriers in this safe red state. Upsets could arise from a primary scandal, extreme nominee alienating moderates, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics, though traders price these as remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$0 Vol.
94%
Democrat
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little's bid for a third term drives trader consensus toward a 93.8% implied probability for a GOP victory in Idaho's November 3 general election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—last Democratic win over three decades ago—and ratings of Solid Republican from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate filings closed March 17 with multiple GOP primary challengers, including grassroots activist Mark Fitzpatrick gaining far-right endorsements like Kootenai County's, yet Little holds incumbency advantages, fundraising leads, and reported backing from Donald Trump ahead of the May 19 Republican primary that will select the nominee. Weak Democratic contenders like Terri Pickens and Maxine Durand face steep historical barriers in this safe red state. Upsets could arise from a primary scandal, extreme nominee alienating moderates, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics, though traders price these as remote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little's bid for a third term drives trader consensus toward a 93.8% implied probability for a GOP victory in Idaho's November 3 general election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—last Democratic win over three decades ago—and ratings of Solid Republican from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate filings closed March 17 with multiple GOP primary challengers, including grassroots activist Mark Fitzpatrick gaining far-right endorsements like Kootenai County's, yet Little holds incumbency advantages, fundraising leads, and reported backing from Donald Trump ahead of the May 19 Republican primary that will select the nominee. Weak Democratic contenders like Terri Pickens and Maxine Durand face steep historical barriers in this safe red state. Upsets could arise from a primary scandal, extreme nominee alienating moderates, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics, though traders price these as remote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little's bid for a third term drives trader consensus toward a 93.8% implied probability for a GOP victory in Idaho's November 3 general election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—last Democratic win over three decades ago—and ratings of Solid Republican from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate filings closed March 17 with multiple GOP primary challengers, including grassroots activist Mark Fitzpatrick gaining far-right endorsements like Kootenai County's, yet Little holds incumbency advantages, fundraising leads, and reported backing from Donald Trump ahead of the May 19 Republican primary that will select the nominee. Weak Democratic contenders like Terri Pickens and Maxine Durand face steep historical barriers in this safe red state. Upsets could arise from a primary scandal, extreme nominee alienating moderates, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics, though traders price these as remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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