Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million. The Democratic nominee's withdrawal in July cleared the field for independent Todd Achilles, who has raised over $690,000 and draws support from some cross-party and outside groups, yet most election forecasters maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors and Risch's primary performance. A realistic shift would require sustained polling reversals, unusually high independent turnout, or an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIdaho Senate Election Winner
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R) 94.6%
Todd Achilles (I) 4.0%
Democrat 1.7%
$43,182 Vol.
$43,182 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jim Risch (R)
95%
Todd Achilles (I)
4%
Democrat
2%
Jim Risch (R) 94.6%
Todd Achilles (I) 4.0%
Democrat 1.7%
$43,182 Vol.
$43,182 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jim Risch (R)
$23,432 Vol.
95%
Todd Achilles (I)
$2,207 Vol.
4%
Democrat
$17,543 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million. The Democratic nominee's withdrawal in July cleared the field for independent Todd Achilles, who has raised over $690,000 and draws support from some cross-party and outside groups, yet most election forecasters maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors and Risch's primary performance. A realistic shift would require sustained polling reversals, unusually high independent turnout, or an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$43,182End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million. The Democratic nominee's withdrawal in July cleared the field for independent Todd Achilles, who has raised over $690,000 and draws support from some cross-party and outside groups, yet most election forecasters maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors and Risch's primary performance. A realistic shift would require sustained polling reversals, unusually high independent turnout, or an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$43,182End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million. The Democratic nominee's withdrawal in July cleared the field for independent Todd Achilles, who has raised over $690,000 and draws support from some cross-party and outside groups, yet most election forecasters maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors and Risch's primary performance. A realistic shift would require sustained polling reversals, unusually high independent turnout, or an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions