Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch commands 91.5% implied probability in the Idaho U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—where GOP candidates have won every Senate contest since 1994—and Risch's seasoned incumbency advantage after his unchallenged primary victory in May. Recent polling averages, including a September Rasmussen survey showing Risch ahead 57%-32% against Democrat Adam Silver, reinforce this trader consensus amid strong GOP fundraising and unified party support. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the market reflects historical base rates of lopsided Idaho outcomes. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or depressed Republican turnout could challenge this lead before the November 5 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
91%
Democrat
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$4,686 Vol.
91%
Democrat
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch commands 91.5% implied probability in the Idaho U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—where GOP candidates have won every Senate contest since 1994—and Risch's seasoned incumbency advantage after his unchallenged primary victory in May. Recent polling averages, including a September Rasmussen survey showing Risch ahead 57%-32% against Democrat Adam Silver, reinforce this trader consensus amid strong GOP fundraising and unified party support. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the market reflects historical base rates of lopsided Idaho outcomes. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or depressed Republican turnout could challenge this lead before the November 5 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability risks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$4,686End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch commands 91.5% implied probability in the Idaho U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—where GOP candidates have won every Senate contest since 1994—and Risch's seasoned incumbency advantage after his unchallenged primary victory in May. Recent polling averages, including a September Rasmussen survey showing Risch ahead 57%-32% against Democrat Adam Silver, reinforce this trader consensus amid strong GOP fundraising and unified party support. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the market reflects historical base rates of lopsided Idaho outcomes. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or depressed Republican turnout could challenge this lead before the November 5 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability risks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$4,686End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch commands 91.5% implied probability in the Idaho U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—where GOP candidates have won every Senate contest since 1994—and Risch's seasoned incumbency advantage after his unchallenged primary victory in May. Recent polling averages, including a September Rasmussen survey showing Risch ahead 57%-32% against Democrat Adam Silver, reinforce this trader consensus amid strong GOP fundraising and unified party support. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the market reflects historical base rates of lopsided Idaho outcomes. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or depressed Republican turnout could challenge this lead before the November 5 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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