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World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Iván Cepeda Castro 73%

Paloma Valencia 19.0%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.5%

Luis Gilberto Murillo <1%

Polymarket

$1,696,805 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 73%

Paloma Valencia 19.0%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.5%

Luis Gilberto Murillo <1%

Polymarket

$1,696,805 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$52,387 Vol.

73%

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Paloma Valencia

$208,036 Vol.

19%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$467,139 Vol.

5%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo

$93,629 Vol.

1%

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Juan Manuel Galán

$67,333 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo

$34,344 Vol.

<1%

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Sergio Fajardo

$49,753 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$22,756 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila

$236,099 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez

$149,171 Vol.

<1%

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Gustavo Bolívar

$72,412 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$36,908 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$31,003 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$21,558 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López

$51,776 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras

$39,058 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$26,941 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to lead the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting his consistent double-digit polling lead amid fragmented opposition. Recent surveys, including a March 28 Guarumo poll showing Cepeda at 37.5%—up from prior readings—and a March 22 Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll at 34.5%, underscore gains following the Historic Pact's legislative election victory on March 8, where the left secured the most seats without a majority. Right-wing support splits between Paloma Valencia (19-22% in latest polls) of Democratic Center and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), diluting challengers and boosting Cepeda's path to first-round plurality, though no candidate nears 50% for outright victory ahead of potential runoff on June 21.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to lead the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting his consistent double-digit polling lead amid fragmented opposition. Recent surveys, including a March 28 Guarumo poll showing Cepeda at 37.5%—up from prior readings—and a March 22 Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll at 34.5%, underscore gains following the Historic Pact's legislative election victory on March 8, where the left secured the most seats without a majority. Right-wing support splits between Paloma Valencia (19-22% in latest polls) of Democratic Center and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), diluting challengers and boosting Cepeda's path to first-round plurality, though no candidate nears 50% for outright victory ahead of potential runoff on June 21.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to lead the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting his consistent double-digit polling lead amid fragmented opposition. Recent surveys, including a March 28 Guarumo poll showing Cepeda at 37.5%—up from prior readings—and a March 22 Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll at 34.5%, underscore gains following the Historic Pact's legislative election victory on March 8, where the left secured the most seats without a majority. Right-wing support splits between Paloma Valencia (19-22% in latest polls) of Democratic Center and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), diluting challengers and boosting Cepeda's path to first-round plurality, though no candidate nears 50% for outright victory ahead of potential runoff on June 21.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to lead the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, with implied probabilities reflecting his consistent double-digit polling lead amid fragmented opposition. Recent surveys, including a March 28 Guarumo poll showing Cepeda at 37.5%—up from prior readings—and a March 22 Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll at 34.5%, underscore gains following the Historic Pact's legislative election victory on March 8, where the left secured the most seats without a majority. Right-wing support splits between Paloma Valencia (19-22% in latest polls) of Democratic Center and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), diluting challengers and boosting Cepeda's path to first-round plurality, though no candidate nears 50% for outright victory ahead of potential runoff on June 21.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

12%
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Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

87%
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Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

93%

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Frequently Asked Questions

" Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 73%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.