Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and prompting Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, with strikes reported as recently as mid-March hitting areas near Jerusalem and Ben Gurion Airport. US forces have since targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites to degrade capabilities, while Iran has launched drones toward Gulf states and closed the Strait of Hormuz intermittently. On March 25, Iran described a US ceasefire proposal as "maximalist and unreasonable" amid ongoing exchanges, though mediators continue talks; Israel has warned of further escalation. Traders weigh diplomatic signals against persistent crossfire risks ahead of potential policy deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$897,444 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
3%
March 27
95%
March 28
99%
March 29
91%
March 30
88%
March 31
87%
$897,444 Vol.
March 23
$590,309 Vol.
3%
March 27
$87,715 Vol.
95%
March 28
$25,073 Vol.
99%
March 29
$8,223 Vol.
91%
March 30
$4,756 Vol.
88%
March 31
$3,848 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and prompting Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, with strikes reported as recently as mid-March hitting areas near Jerusalem and Ben Gurion Airport. US forces have since targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites to degrade capabilities, while Iran has launched drones toward Gulf states and closed the Strait of Hormuz intermittently. On March 25, Iran described a US ceasefire proposal as "maximalist and unreasonable" amid ongoing exchanges, though mediators continue talks; Israel has warned of further escalation. Traders weigh diplomatic signals against persistent crossfire risks ahead of potential policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$897,444End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and prompting Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, with strikes reported as recently as mid-March hitting areas near Jerusalem and Ben Gurion Airport. US forces have since targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites to degrade capabilities, while Iran has launched drones toward Gulf states and closed the Strait of Hormuz intermittently. On March 25, Iran described a US ceasefire proposal as "maximalist and unreasonable" amid ongoing exchanges, though mediators continue talks; Israel has warned of further escalation. Traders weigh diplomatic signals against persistent crossfire risks ahead of potential policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$897,444End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and prompting Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel, with strikes reported as recently as mid-March hitting areas near Jerusalem and Ben Gurion Airport. US forces have since targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites to degrade capabilities, while Iran has launched drones toward Gulf states and closed the Strait of Hormuz intermittently. On March 25, Iran described a US ceasefire proposal as "maximalist and unreasonable" amid ongoing exchanges, though mediators continue talks; Israel has warned of further escalation. Traders weigh diplomatic signals against persistent crossfire risks ahead of potential policy deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions