Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began with over 900 strikes on February 28, 2026—achieving air superiority over Tehran and targeting missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—traders price a strong consensus for eventual US ground forces entry, driven by recent Pentagon deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, Marine Expeditionary Units, and the 82nd Airborne, swelling regional US presence beyond 50,000. Discussions of securing Iran's enriched uranium stocks and threats to seize Strait of Hormuz islands if diplomacy fails have fueled escalation signals, despite Iranian missile retaliations killing three US service members and wounding others at bases in Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Defense Secretary Hegseth described coming days as "decisive," with lawmakers opposing boots-on-the-ground absent congressional authorization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$69,870,545 Vol.
Mar 1, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
56%
December 31
63%
$69,870,545 Vol.
March 31
$47,538,124 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$13,172,109 Vol.
56%
December 31
$7,596,914 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began with over 900 strikes on February 28, 2026—achieving air superiority over Tehran and targeting missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—traders price a strong consensus for eventual US ground forces entry, driven by recent Pentagon deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, Marine Expeditionary Units, and the 82nd Airborne, swelling regional US presence beyond 50,000. Discussions of securing Iran's enriched uranium stocks and threats to seize Strait of Hormuz islands if diplomacy fails have fueled escalation signals, despite Iranian missile retaliations killing three US service members and wounding others at bases in Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Defense Secretary Hegseth described coming days as "decisive," with lawmakers opposing boots-on-the-ground absent congressional authorization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$69,870,545Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began with over 900 strikes on February 28, 2026—achieving air superiority over Tehran and targeting missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—traders price a strong consensus for eventual US ground forces entry, driven by recent Pentagon deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, Marine Expeditionary Units, and the 82nd Airborne, swelling regional US presence beyond 50,000. Discussions of securing Iran's enriched uranium stocks and threats to seize Strait of Hormuz islands if diplomacy fails have fueled escalation signals, despite Iranian missile retaliations killing three US service members and wounding others at bases in Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Defense Secretary Hegseth described coming days as "decisive," with lawmakers opposing boots-on-the-ground absent congressional authorization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$69,870,545Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began with over 900 strikes on February 28, 2026—achieving air superiority over Tehran and targeting missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—traders price a strong consensus for eventual US ground forces entry, driven by recent Pentagon deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, Marine Expeditionary Units, and the 82nd Airborne, swelling regional US presence beyond 50,000. Discussions of securing Iran's enriched uranium stocks and threats to seize Strait of Hormuz islands if diplomacy fails have fueled escalation signals, despite Iranian missile retaliations killing three US service members and wounding others at bases in Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Defense Secretary Hegseth described coming days as "decisive," with lawmakers opposing boots-on-the-ground absent congressional authorization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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