Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$7,938,434 Vol.
May 15, 2026
March 31
2%
April 15
20%
April 7
8%
April 30
35%
May 15
47%
June 30
64%
December 31
82%
$7,938,434 Vol.
March 31
$4,168,159 Vol.
2%
April 15
$887,689 Vol.
20%
April 7
$74,348 Vol.
8%
April 30
$652,830 Vol.
35%
May 15
$1,158,059 Vol.
47%
June 30
$798,675 Vol.
64%
December 31
$199,018 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$7,938,434End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$7,938,434End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation signals after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites, a measured retaliation to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel. Both nations have emphasized restraint—Iran signaling no desire for wider war, Israel avoiding nuclear or oil facilities—amid US diplomatic pressure and defensive aid during attacks. Proxy escalations persist through Hezbollah strikes in Lebanon and Houthi actions in the Red Sea, sustaining tensions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a catalyst, potentially shifting sanctions, military aid, or negotiation postures, with no ceasefire talks confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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