Despite sustained US and Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's missile launch sites, air defenses, and leadership—including strikes on IRGC facilities and inner-circle figures like Kamal Kharrazi as of April 2—Iranian forces maintain operational resilience, launching over 20 missiles at Israel and coordinating proxy attacks via Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias. IRGC consolidation has sidelined President Pezeshkian, forming a military council for core decisions around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, while mass arrests exceeding 2,000 suppress dissent amid economic pressures from factory shutdowns. US and Israeli intelligence assessments affirm regime cohesion with no collapse signals, as echoed in recent reports rejecting ceasefire rumors and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects historical IRGC loyalty and absent internal triggers like defections, though prolonged war or energy strikes could shift dynamics before June 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$25,960,618 Vol.
$25,960,618 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$25,960,618 Vol.
$25,960,618 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite sustained US and Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's missile launch sites, air defenses, and leadership—including strikes on IRGC facilities and inner-circle figures like Kamal Kharrazi as of April 2—Iranian forces maintain operational resilience, launching over 20 missiles at Israel and coordinating proxy attacks via Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias. IRGC consolidation has sidelined President Pezeshkian, forming a military council for core decisions around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, while mass arrests exceeding 2,000 suppress dissent amid economic pressures from factory shutdowns. US and Israeli intelligence assessments affirm regime cohesion with no collapse signals, as echoed in recent reports rejecting ceasefire rumors and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects historical IRGC loyalty and absent internal triggers like defections, though prolonged war or energy strikes could shift dynamics before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$25,960,618End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite sustained US and Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's missile launch sites, air defenses, and leadership—including strikes on IRGC facilities and inner-circle figures like Kamal Kharrazi as of April 2—Iranian forces maintain operational resilience, launching over 20 missiles at Israel and coordinating proxy attacks via Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias. IRGC consolidation has sidelined President Pezeshkian, forming a military council for core decisions around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, while mass arrests exceeding 2,000 suppress dissent amid economic pressures from factory shutdowns. US and Israeli intelligence assessments affirm regime cohesion with no collapse signals, as echoed in recent reports rejecting ceasefire rumors and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects historical IRGC loyalty and absent internal triggers like defections, though prolonged war or energy strikes could shift dynamics before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,962,170End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite sustained US and Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's missile launch sites, air defenses, and leadership—including strikes on IRGC facilities and inner-circle figures like Kamal Kharrazi as of April 2—Iranian forces maintain operational resilience, launching over 20 missiles at Israel and coordinating proxy attacks via Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias. IRGC consolidation has sidelined President Pezeshkian, forming a military council for core decisions around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, while mass arrests exceeding 2,000 suppress dissent amid economic pressures from factory shutdowns. US and Israeli intelligence assessments affirm regime cohesion with no collapse signals, as echoed in recent reports rejecting ceasefire rumors and leveraging Strait of Hormuz control. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects historical IRGC loyalty and absent internal triggers like defections, though prolonged war or energy strikes could shift dynamics before June 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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