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World·Israel

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Market icon
World·Israel

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

$492,151 Vol.

Oct 31, 2025
Polymarket

$492,151 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31, 2026

$320,392 Vol.

2%

June 30

$8,067 Vol.

16%

December 31

$12,806 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli forces have maintained targeted raids and airstrikes in Gaza without launching a major ground offensive since scaling back from Rafah operations in May 2024, prioritizing Hamas tunnel networks and leadership eliminations. Over the past week, intensified airstrikes killed dozens, including militants, in response to sporadic rocket fire, amid stalled ceasefire talks in Doha mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to secure hostage releases while balancing international calls for restraint from allies like the Biden administration. Key upcoming events include potential negotiation breakthroughs or UN Security Council actions, which could signal de-escalation or renewed military escalation before the market deadline.

Israeli forces have maintained targeted raids and airstrikes in Gaza without launching a major ground offensive since scaling back from Rafah operations in May 2024, prioritizing Hamas tunnel networks and leadership eliminations. Over the past week, intensified airstrikes killed dozens, including militants, in response to sporadic rocket fire, amid stalled ceasefire talks in Doha mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to secure hostage releases while balancing international calls for restraint from allies like the Biden administration. Key upcoming events include potential negotiation breakthroughs or UN Security Council actions, which could signal de-escalation or renewed military escalation before the market deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli forces have maintained targeted raids and airstrikes in Gaza without launching a major ground offensive since scaling back from Rafah operations in May 2024, prioritizing Hamas tunnel networks and leadership eliminations. Over the past week, intensified airstrikes killed dozens, including militants, in response to sporadic rocket fire, amid stalled ceasefire talks in Doha mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to secure hostage releases while balancing international calls for restraint from allies like the Biden administration. Key upcoming events include potential negotiation breakthroughs or UN Security Council actions, which could signal de-escalation or renewed military escalation before the market deadline.

Israeli forces have maintained targeted raids and airstrikes in Gaza without launching a major ground offensive since scaling back from Rafah operations in May 2024, prioritizing Hamas tunnel networks and leadership eliminations. Over the past week, intensified airstrikes killed dozens, including militants, in response to sporadic rocket fire, amid stalled ceasefire talks in Doha mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to secure hostage releases while balancing international calls for restraint from allies like the Biden administration. Key upcoming events include potential negotiation breakthroughs or UN Security Council actions, which could signal de-escalation or renewed military escalation before the market deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 39%, followed by "June 30" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?" has generated $492.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?" is "December 31" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.