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Politics·Iraq

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

Market icon
Politics·Iraq

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

Mar 31

Mar 31

$353,710 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$353,710 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$297,996 Vol.

5%

April 30

$1,723 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. The US Embassy in Baghdad remains fully operational amid persistent threats from Iran-backed militias, with no ordered evacuations or partial withdrawals announced in the past 30 days. Recent militia rocket and drone attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria—such as the January 28 incident near Erbil—prompted US retaliatory airstrikes on militia sites, yet the State Department has reaffirmed its commitment to diplomatic presence to counter Iranian influence. This stability reflects Biden administration policy prioritizing targeted responses over embassy pullouts, echoing 2020 Soleimani tensions that saw temporary non-essential staff departures but no full evacuation. Escalation signals, diplomatic negotiations, or major attacks could shift dynamics ahead of any market resolution date.

The US Embassy in Baghdad remains fully operational amid persistent threats from Iran-backed militias, with no ordered evacuations or partial withdrawals announced in the past 30 days. Recent militia rocket and drone attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria—such as the January 28 incident near Erbil—prompted US retaliatory airstrikes on militia sites, yet the State Department has reaffirmed its commitment to diplomatic presence to counter Iranian influence. This stability reflects Biden administration policy prioritizing targeted responses over embassy pullouts, echoing 2020 Soleimani tensions that saw temporary non-essential staff departures but no full evacuation. Escalation signals, diplomatic negotiations, or major attacks could shift dynamics ahead of any market resolution date.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. The US Embassy in Baghdad remains fully operational amid persistent threats from Iran-backed militias, with no ordered evacuations or partial withdrawals announced in the past 30 days. Recent militia rocket and drone attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria—such as the January 28 incident near Erbil—prompted US retaliatory airstrikes on militia sites, yet the State Department has reaffirmed its commitment to diplomatic presence to counter Iranian influence. This stability reflects Biden administration policy prioritizing targeted responses over embassy pullouts, echoing 2020 Soleimani tensions that saw temporary non-essential staff departures but no full evacuation. Escalation signals, diplomatic negotiations, or major attacks could shift dynamics ahead of any market resolution date.

The US Embassy in Baghdad remains fully operational amid persistent threats from Iran-backed militias, with no ordered evacuations or partial withdrawals announced in the past 30 days. Recent militia rocket and drone attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria—such as the January 28 incident near Erbil—prompted US retaliatory airstrikes on militia sites, yet the State Department has reaffirmed its commitment to diplomatic presence to counter Iranian influence. This stability reflects Biden administration policy prioritizing targeted responses over embassy pullouts, echoing 2020 Soleimani tensions that saw temporary non-essential staff departures but no full evacuation. Escalation signals, diplomatic negotiations, or major attacks could shift dynamics ahead of any market resolution date.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 14%, followed by "March 31" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" has generated $353.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" is "April 30" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.