Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 59-60% turnout in the November 30, 2025, Honduran general election at 54%, driven by preliminary tallies from the National Electoral Council (CNE) centering in that bracket amid a fiercely contested three-way presidential race between Nasry Asfura (National Party), Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party), and Rixi Moncada (LIBRE). Technical glitches, fraud allegations from President Xiomara Castro's camp, and a manual recount of 15% of ballots in December 2025—followed by congressional approval of a full recount on January 10—have fueled uncertainty over final validations, including invalid and blank votes totaling about 6%. Official CNE declaration pegged turnout at 60.19% (down from 68.6% in 2021) on December 24, but lingering disputes and no major updates in the past 30 days sustain bets on a slight downward adjustment to 59-60%, with lower brackets like <56% at 14% reflecting abstention risks from voter apathy and insecurity concerns. Asfura's narrow victory and January 27 inauguration leave resolution hinging on recount outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTurnout in 2025 Honduran General Election (Smaller Brackets)
Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election (Smaller Brackets)
59-60% 53.9%
<56% 15.0%
58-59% 12.4%
60-61% 4.6%
$43,021 Vol.
$43,021 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
<56%
14%
56-57%
3%
57-58%
3%
58-59%
12%
59-60%
54%
60-61%
5%
61-62%
4%
>62%
3%
59-60% 53.9%
<56% 15.0%
58-59% 12.4%
60-61% 4.6%
$43,021 Vol.
$43,021 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
<56%
$11,034 Vol.
14%
56-57%
$9,321 Vol.
3%
57-58%
$13,311 Vol.
3%
58-59%
$0 Vol.
12%
59-60%
$0 Vol.
54%
60-61%
$0 Vol.
5%
61-62%
$9,355 Vol.
4%
>62%
$0 Vol.
3%
Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 59-60% turnout in the November 30, 2025, Honduran general election at 54%, driven by preliminary tallies from the National Electoral Council (CNE) centering in that bracket amid a fiercely contested three-way presidential race between Nasry Asfura (National Party), Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party), and Rixi Moncada (LIBRE). Technical glitches, fraud allegations from President Xiomara Castro's camp, and a manual recount of 15% of ballots in December 2025—followed by congressional approval of a full recount on January 10—have fueled uncertainty over final validations, including invalid and blank votes totaling about 6%. Official CNE declaration pegged turnout at 60.19% (down from 68.6% in 2021) on December 24, but lingering disputes and no major updates in the past 30 days sustain bets on a slight downward adjustment to 59-60%, with lower brackets like <56% at 14% reflecting abstention risks from voter apathy and insecurity concerns. Asfura's narrow victory and January 27 inauguration leave resolution hinging on recount outcomes.
Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 2:18 PM ET
Volume
$43,021End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 59-60% turnout in the November 30, 2025, Honduran general election at 54%, driven by preliminary tallies from the National Electoral Council (CNE) centering in that bracket amid a fiercely contested three-way presidential race between Nasry Asfura (National Party), Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party), and Rixi Moncada (LIBRE). Technical glitches, fraud allegations from President Xiomara Castro's camp, and a manual recount of 15% of ballots in December 2025—followed by congressional approval of a full recount on January 10—have fueled uncertainty over final validations, including invalid and blank votes totaling about 6%. Official CNE declaration pegged turnout at 60.19% (down from 68.6% in 2021) on December 24, but lingering disputes and no major updates in the past 30 days sustain bets on a slight downward adjustment to 59-60%, with lower brackets like <56% at 14% reflecting abstention risks from voter apathy and insecurity concerns. Asfura's narrow victory and January 27 inauguration leave resolution hinging on recount outcomes.
Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).
Volume
$43,021End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 59-60% turnout in the November 30, 2025, Honduran general election at 54%, driven by preliminary tallies from the National Electoral Council (CNE) centering in that bracket amid a fiercely contested three-way presidential race between Nasry Asfura (National Party), Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party), and Rixi Moncada (LIBRE). Technical glitches, fraud allegations from President Xiomara Castro's camp, and a manual recount of 15% of ballots in December 2025—followed by congressional approval of a full recount on January 10—have fueled uncertainty over final validations, including invalid and blank votes totaling about 6%. Official CNE declaration pegged turnout at 60.19% (down from 68.6% in 2021) on December 24, but lingering disputes and no major updates in the past 30 days sustain bets on a slight downward adjustment to 59-60%, with lower brackets like <56% at 14% reflecting abstention risks from voter apathy and insecurity concerns. Asfura's narrow victory and January 27 inauguration leave resolution hinging on recount outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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