United Russia's commanding 95.5% implied probability for the most seats in Russia's September 18-20, 2026, State Duma elections stems from its entrenched role as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, consistently securing supermajorities in past legislative votes through a mixed system of 225 proportional party-list seats and 225 single-member districts. Recent mid-March leaks of internal United Russia documents exposed rigorous vetting of candidates for corruption and vulnerabilities, reinforcing party discipline amid Kremlin campaign preparations launched in January. Party leaders acknowledged challenges in up to 30 regions, targeting 55% on party lists and victories in 195 districts despite competition from systemic opposition like KPRF and LDPR. No polling surges for rivals have emerged, but scenarios like war escalations, economic shocks, or elite scandals could theoretically disrupt this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 95.5%
New People (NL) 1.3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.0%
Civic Platform (GP) 1.0%
$892,963 Vol.
$892,963 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
96%
New People (NL)
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
United Russia (ER) 95.5%
New People (NL) 1.3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.0%
Civic Platform (GP) 1.0%
$892,963 Vol.
$892,963 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$469,728 Vol.
96%
New People (NL)
$34,657 Vol.
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$77,105 Vol.
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$76,335 Vol.
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$31,501 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$128,790 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$74,847 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95.5% implied probability for the most seats in Russia's September 18-20, 2026, State Duma elections stems from its entrenched role as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, consistently securing supermajorities in past legislative votes through a mixed system of 225 proportional party-list seats and 225 single-member districts. Recent mid-March leaks of internal United Russia documents exposed rigorous vetting of candidates for corruption and vulnerabilities, reinforcing party discipline amid Kremlin campaign preparations launched in January. Party leaders acknowledged challenges in up to 30 regions, targeting 55% on party lists and victories in 195 districts despite competition from systemic opposition like KPRF and LDPR. No polling surges for rivals have emerged, but scenarios like war escalations, economic shocks, or elite scandals could theoretically disrupt this consensus.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$892,963End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95.5% implied probability for the most seats in Russia's September 18-20, 2026, State Duma elections stems from its entrenched role as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, consistently securing supermajorities in past legislative votes through a mixed system of 225 proportional party-list seats and 225 single-member districts. Recent mid-March leaks of internal United Russia documents exposed rigorous vetting of candidates for corruption and vulnerabilities, reinforcing party discipline amid Kremlin campaign preparations launched in January. Party leaders acknowledged challenges in up to 30 regions, targeting 55% on party lists and victories in 195 districts despite competition from systemic opposition like KPRF and LDPR. No polling surges for rivals have emerged, but scenarios like war escalations, economic shocks, or elite scandals could theoretically disrupt this consensus.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$892,963End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 95.5% implied probability for the most seats in Russia's September 18-20, 2026, State Duma elections stems from its entrenched role as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, consistently securing supermajorities in past legislative votes through a mixed system of 225 proportional party-list seats and 225 single-member districts. Recent mid-March leaks of internal United Russia documents exposed rigorous vetting of candidates for corruption and vulnerabilities, reinforcing party discipline amid Kremlin campaign preparations launched in January. Party leaders acknowledged challenges in up to 30 regions, targeting 55% on party lists and victories in 195 districts despite competition from systemic opposition like KPRF and LDPR. No polling surges for rivals have emerged, but scenarios like war escalations, economic shocks, or elite scandals could theoretically disrupt this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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