Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 59% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026, general election, driven by seat projections showing PQ securing a projected 63 seats despite a narrow 31%-29% vote lead over the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the latest Léger poll from early March. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has collapsed to 8.5% odds following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation amid low approval ratings, projected at zero seats. PLQ's surge to 30% under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the race from PQ's double-digit January leads, but PQ's regional strength in Quebec City and Saguenay regions boosts its path to plurality or majority per 338Canada models. Smaller parties like PCQ (15% vote share) lack efficiency for breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 59%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$366,759 Vol.
$366,759 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
59%
PLQ
32%
CAQ
9%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 59%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$366,759 Vol.
$366,759 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$35,319 Vol.
59%
PLQ
$34,255 Vol.
32%
CAQ
$34,914 Vol.
9%
PCQ
$116,014 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$102,240 Vol.
<1%
QS
$44,017 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 59% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026, general election, driven by seat projections showing PQ securing a projected 63 seats despite a narrow 31%-29% vote lead over the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the latest Léger poll from early March. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has collapsed to 8.5% odds following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation amid low approval ratings, projected at zero seats. PLQ's surge to 30% under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the race from PQ's double-digit January leads, but PQ's regional strength in Quebec City and Saguenay regions boosts its path to plurality or majority per 338Canada models. Smaller parties like PCQ (15% vote share) lack efficiency for breakthroughs.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$366,759End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 59% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026, general election, driven by seat projections showing PQ securing a projected 63 seats despite a narrow 31%-29% vote lead over the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the latest Léger poll from early March. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has collapsed to 8.5% odds following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation amid low approval ratings, projected at zero seats. PLQ's surge to 30% under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the race from PQ's double-digit January leads, but PQ's regional strength in Quebec City and Saguenay regions boosts its path to plurality or majority per 338Canada models. Smaller parties like PCQ (15% vote share) lack efficiency for breakthroughs.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$366,759End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 59% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's October 5, 2026, general election, driven by seat projections showing PQ securing a projected 63 seats despite a narrow 31%-29% vote lead over the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the latest Léger poll from early March. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has collapsed to 8.5% odds following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation amid low approval ratings, projected at zero seats. PLQ's surge to 30% under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the race from PQ's double-digit January leads, but PQ's regional strength in Quebec City and Saguenay regions boosts its path to plurality or majority per 338Canada models. Smaller parties like PCQ (15% vote share) lack efficiency for breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions