Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 20%

Carlos Álvarez 14.9%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.4%

Polymarket

$4,921,325 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 20%

Carlos Álvarez 14.9%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.4%

Polymarket

$4,921,325 Vol.

Market icon

Rafael López Aliaga

$633,291 Vol.

33%

Market icon

Keiko Fujimori

$261,787 Vol.

20%

Market icon

Carlos Álvarez

$155,942 Vol.

15%

Market icon

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$350,893 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Alfonso López Chau

$228,474 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Jorge Nieto

$698,923 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Ricardo Belmont

$229,814 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Marisol Pérez Tello

$213,718 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wolfgang Grozo

$386,799 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Carlos Espá

$156,798 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mesías Guevara

$127,479 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Yonhy Lescano

$192,360 Vol.

1%

Market icon

George Forsyth

$140,720 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

César Acuña

$115,558 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Roberto Chiabra

$76,670 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mario Vizcarra

$139,592 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

José Williams

$68,775 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fernando Olivera

$110,024 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Vladimir Cerrón

$134,497 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

José Luna

$107,469 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fiorella Molinelli

$97,485 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$130,937 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Enrique Valderrama

$163,318 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Rafael López Aliaga as the frontrunner at 33% implied probability for Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, driven by his consistent late-March poll leads or ties (11-16% in Datum, CPI, and Imasolu surveys) amid voter priorities on crime, corruption, and insecurity following years of instability under interim President Balcázar. In the fragmented field of 34 candidates requiring a runoff for sub-50% finishers, López Aliaga's far-right Popular Renewal platform—emphasizing tough-on-crime policies, conservative social stances, and Lima mayoral experience—differentiates him from Keiko Fujimori's (19.5%) scandal-weary Fujimorist base and Carlos Álvarez's (14.9%) progressive comedian outsider appeal. High undecided rates (15-25%) and recent televised debates, where frontrunners faced criticism, could consolidate anti-establishment support or enable regional surges ahead of the vote.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,921,325
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Rafael López Aliaga as the frontrunner at 33% implied probability for Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, driven by his consistent late-March poll leads or ties (11-16% in Datum, CPI, and Imasolu surveys) amid voter priorities on crime, corruption, and insecurity following years of instability under interim President Balcázar. In the fragmented field of 34 candidates requiring a runoff for sub-50% finishers, López Aliaga's far-right Popular Renewal platform—emphasizing tough-on-crime policies, conservative social stances, and Lima mayoral experience—differentiates him from Keiko Fujimori's (19.5%) scandal-weary Fujimorist base and Carlos Álvarez's (14.9%) progressive comedian outsider appeal. High undecided rates (15-25%) and recent televised debates, where frontrunners faced criticism, could consolidate anti-establishment support or enable regional surges ahead of the vote.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,921,325
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

Market icon

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

46%
Market icon

Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

17%
Market icon

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

32%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election Winner" has generated $4.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.