Cait Conley holds a clear edge in trader consensus for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the swing seat favors Democrats on registration and recent presidential voting while her background as a West Point graduate, combat veteran, and former national security official aligns with local priorities on veterans and security. Mike Lawler remains competitive through his record of constituent service and moderate positioning in a district that has backed him twice despite favoring Kamala Harris in 2024. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the November 3 contest a toss-up. Recent developments include Conley’s June primary victory, multiple forecasters shifting the race from lean Republican to toss-up in July, and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s September 21 endorsement of Lawler, which highlights the race’s sensitivity to cross-party signals and independent voter turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,980 Vol.
$19,980 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Cait Conley (D)
67%
Mike Lawler (R)
32%
$19,980 Vol.
$19,980 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$7,829 Vol.
67%
Mike Lawler (R)
$12,151 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a clear edge in trader consensus for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the swing seat favors Democrats on registration and recent presidential voting while her background as a West Point graduate, combat veteran, and former national security official aligns with local priorities on veterans and security. Mike Lawler remains competitive through his record of constituent service and moderate positioning in a district that has backed him twice despite favoring Kamala Harris in 2024. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the November 3 contest a toss-up. Recent developments include Conley’s June primary victory, multiple forecasters shifting the race from lean Republican to toss-up in July, and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s September 21 endorsement of Lawler, which highlights the race’s sensitivity to cross-party signals and independent voter turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$19,980End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a clear edge in trader consensus for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the swing seat favors Democrats on registration and recent presidential voting while her background as a West Point graduate, combat veteran, and former national security official aligns with local priorities on veterans and security. Mike Lawler remains competitive through his record of constituent service and moderate positioning in a district that has backed him twice despite favoring Kamala Harris in 2024. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the November 3 contest a toss-up. Recent developments include Conley’s June primary victory, multiple forecasters shifting the race from lean Republican to toss-up in July, and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s September 21 endorsement of Lawler, which highlights the race’s sensitivity to cross-party signals and independent voter turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,980End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Cait Conley holds a clear edge in trader consensus for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the swing seat favors Democrats on registration and recent presidential voting while her background as a West Point graduate, combat veteran, and former national security official aligns with local priorities on veterans and security. Mike Lawler remains competitive through his record of constituent service and moderate positioning in a district that has backed him twice despite favoring Kamala Harris in 2024. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the November 3 contest a toss-up. Recent developments include Conley’s June primary victory, multiple forecasters shifting the race from lean Republican to toss-up in July, and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s September 21 endorsement of Lawler, which highlights the race’s sensitivity to cross-party signals and independent voter turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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