Cait Conley holds the edge in trader pricing for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the Hudson Valley swing seat favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a Democratic registration advantage. Conley, an Army combat veteran and former National Security Council official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after outraising rivals and drawing national party support. The race remains rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, with one summer poll showing a narrow Conley lead that has since faced heavy Republican ad spending. Incumbent Mike Lawler has a record of outperforming the district’s partisan lean in prior cycles, yet midterm dynamics and Conley’s service background have shifted implied probabilities toward the challenger ahead of November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,993 Vol.
$19,993 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Cait Conley (D)
67%
Mike Lawler (R)
32%
$19,993 Vol.
$19,993 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$7,829 Vol.
67%
Mike Lawler (R)
$12,165 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds the edge in trader pricing for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the Hudson Valley swing seat favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a Democratic registration advantage. Conley, an Army combat veteran and former National Security Council official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after outraising rivals and drawing national party support. The race remains rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, with one summer poll showing a narrow Conley lead that has since faced heavy Republican ad spending. Incumbent Mike Lawler has a record of outperforming the district’s partisan lean in prior cycles, yet midterm dynamics and Conley’s service background have shifted implied probabilities toward the challenger ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$19,993End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds the edge in trader pricing for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the Hudson Valley swing seat favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a Democratic registration advantage. Conley, an Army combat veteran and former National Security Council official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after outraising rivals and drawing national party support. The race remains rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, with one summer poll showing a narrow Conley lead that has since faced heavy Republican ad spending. Incumbent Mike Lawler has a record of outperforming the district’s partisan lean in prior cycles, yet midterm dynamics and Conley’s service background have shifted implied probabilities toward the challenger ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,993End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Cait Conley holds the edge in trader pricing for New York’s 17th Congressional District because the Hudson Valley swing seat favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a Democratic registration advantage. Conley, an Army combat veteran and former National Security Council official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after outraising rivals and drawing national party support. The race remains rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, with one summer poll showing a narrow Conley lead that has since faced heavy Republican ad spending. Incumbent Mike Lawler has a record of outperforming the district’s partisan lean in prior cycles, yet midterm dynamics and Conley’s service background have shifted implied probabilities toward the challenger ahead of November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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