New York's 12th Congressional District, an open seat following Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a Solid Democratic stronghold with a D+33 partisan lean and history of 80% Democratic general election margins, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary features high-profile contenders like Alex Bores, George Conway, Micah Lasher, and Jack Schlossberg, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $2 million each, while the Republican primary field shows minimal resources under $100,000 total. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Cook Political ratings unchanged as of early April. Realistic challenges include a massive Republican midterm wave or post-primary scandal imploding the Democratic nominee before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,606 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$2,270 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th Congressional District, an open seat following Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a Solid Democratic stronghold with a D+33 partisan lean and history of 80% Democratic general election margins, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary features high-profile contenders like Alex Bores, George Conway, Micah Lasher, and Jack Schlossberg, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $2 million each, while the Republican primary field shows minimal resources under $100,000 total. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Cook Political ratings unchanged as of early April. Realistic challenges include a massive Republican midterm wave or post-primary scandal imploding the Democratic nominee before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$9,876End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th Congressional District, an open seat following Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a Solid Democratic stronghold with a D+33 partisan lean and history of 80% Democratic general election margins, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary features high-profile contenders like Alex Bores, George Conway, Micah Lasher, and Jack Schlossberg, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $2 million each, while the Republican primary field shows minimal resources under $100,000 total. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Cook Political ratings unchanged as of early April. Realistic challenges include a massive Republican midterm wave or post-primary scandal imploding the Democratic nominee before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,876End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 12th Congressional District, an open seat following Jerry Nadler's retirement, remains a Solid Democratic stronghold with a D+33 partisan lean and history of 80% Democratic general election margins, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Democratic Party. The crowded June 23 Democratic primary features high-profile contenders like Alex Bores, George Conway, Micah Lasher, and Jack Schlossberg, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $2 million each, while the Republican primary field shows minimal resources under $100,000 total. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Cook Political ratings unchanged as of early April. Realistic challenges include a massive Republican midterm wave or post-primary scandal imploding the Democratic nominee before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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