Tony Wied holds an 88.5% implied probability as the WI-08 winner primarily because the northeastern Wisconsin district has not elected a Democrat in two decades and carries consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. Wied, the Republican incumbent first elected in a 2024 special election, ran unopposed in the August 2026 primary while raising over $1 million. Democrat Rick Crosson secured his party's nomination with 35% in a three-way primary but faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and the district's partisan baseline. No major campaign developments or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter the consensus reflected in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-08 House Election Winner
WI-08 House Election Winner
$26,117 Vol.
$26,117 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tony Wied (R)
89%
Rick Crosson (D)
10%
$26,117 Vol.
$26,117 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tony Wied (R)
$18,115 Vol.
89%
Rick Crosson (D)
$8,002 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tony Wied holds an 88.5% implied probability as the WI-08 winner primarily because the northeastern Wisconsin district has not elected a Democrat in two decades and carries consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. Wied, the Republican incumbent first elected in a 2024 special election, ran unopposed in the August 2026 primary while raising over $1 million. Democrat Rick Crosson secured his party's nomination with 35% in a three-way primary but faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and the district's partisan baseline. No major campaign developments or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter the consensus reflected in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,117End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tony Wied holds an 88.5% implied probability as the WI-08 winner primarily because the northeastern Wisconsin district has not elected a Democrat in two decades and carries consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. Wied, the Republican incumbent first elected in a 2024 special election, ran unopposed in the August 2026 primary while raising over $1 million. Democrat Rick Crosson secured his party's nomination with 35% in a three-way primary but faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and the district's partisan baseline. No major campaign developments or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter the consensus reflected in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,117End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Tony Wied holds an 88.5% implied probability as the WI-08 winner primarily because the northeastern Wisconsin district has not elected a Democrat in two decades and carries consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. Wied, the Republican incumbent first elected in a 2024 special election, ran unopposed in the August 2026 primary while raising over $1 million. Democrat Rick Crosson secured his party's nomination with 35% in a three-way primary but faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and the district's partisan baseline. No major campaign developments or polling shifts have emerged in recent weeks to alter the consensus reflected in trader pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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