Oregon’s 1st Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic structural edge that shapes trader consensus around a high probability of continued party control in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Suzanne Bonamici faces only token primary opposition on May 19 before entering a November contest in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Republican primary contenders offer limited name recognition or fundraising capacity to mount a credible challenge. Any shift in implied probability would require an unusual confluence of events, such as a late Democratic withdrawal, significant scandal, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s established voter registration and turnout patterns favoring the Democratic nominee.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOR-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
OR-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$3,822 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$872 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon’s 1st Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic structural edge that shapes trader consensus around a high probability of continued party control in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Suzanne Bonamici faces only token primary opposition on May 19 before entering a November contest in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Republican primary contenders offer limited name recognition or fundraising capacity to mount a credible challenge. Any shift in implied probability would require an unusual confluence of events, such as a late Democratic withdrawal, significant scandal, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s established voter registration and turnout patterns favoring the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$4,694Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon’s 1st Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic structural edge that shapes trader consensus around a high probability of continued party control in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Suzanne Bonamici faces only token primary opposition on May 19 before entering a November contest in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Republican primary contenders offer limited name recognition or fundraising capacity to mount a credible challenge. Any shift in implied probability would require an unusual confluence of events, such as a late Democratic withdrawal, significant scandal, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s established voter registration and turnout patterns favoring the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$4,694Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon’s 1st Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic structural edge that shapes trader consensus around a high probability of continued party control in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Suzanne Bonamici faces only token primary opposition on May 19 before entering a November contest in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Republican primary contenders offer limited name recognition or fundraising capacity to mount a credible challenge. Any shift in implied probability would require an unusual confluence of events, such as a late Democratic withdrawal, significant scandal, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s established voter registration and turnout patterns favoring the Democratic nominee.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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