Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election shows Labour candidate Andy Burnham holding a lead of roughly 6–10 points over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, consistent with surveys from Survation and others in late May and early June. This positioning underpins trader consensus around a Burnham margin exceeding 9 percent, reflecting the seat's Labour-leaning history, Burnham's established local profile from prior service in the area, and Reform's challenge amid broader voter dissatisfaction with national politics. The June 18 vote remains close enough that tighter results stay live possibilities, with turnout, late swings on local issues such as immigration and economic concerns, and any final campaign developments able to narrow the gap.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMakerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Burnham 9%+ 58%
Burnham 6-9% 14%
Kenyon <3% 12%
Burnham 3-6% 11%
$26,644 Объем
$26,644 Объем
Burnham 9%+
58%
Burnham 6-9%
14%
Burnham 3-6%
11%
Burnham <3%
5%
Kenyon <3%
12%
Kenyon 3-6%
5%
Kenyon 6%+
4%
Other
3%
Burnham 9%+ 58%
Burnham 6-9% 14%
Kenyon <3% 12%
Burnham 3-6% 11%
$26,644 Объем
$26,644 Объем
Burnham 9%+
$5,426 Объем
58%
Burnham 6-9%
$2,532 Объем
14%
Burnham 3-6%
$2,867 Объем
11%
Burnham <3%
$3,012 Объем
5%
Kenyon <3%
$2,743 Объем
12%
Kenyon 3-6%
$2,352 Объем
5%
Kenyon 6%+
$3,324 Объем
4%
Other
$4,388 Объем
3%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election shows Labour candidate Andy Burnham holding a lead of roughly 6–10 points over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, consistent with surveys from Survation and others in late May and early June. This positioning underpins trader consensus around a Burnham margin exceeding 9 percent, reflecting the seat's Labour-leaning history, Burnham's established local profile from prior service in the area, and Reform's challenge amid broader voter dissatisfaction with national politics. The June 18 vote remains close enough that tighter results stay live possibilities, with turnout, late swings on local issues such as immigration and economic concerns, and any final campaign developments able to narrow the gap.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Объем
$26,644Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election shows Labour candidate Andy Burnham holding a lead of roughly 6–10 points over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, consistent with surveys from Survation and others in late May and early June. This positioning underpins trader consensus around a Burnham margin exceeding 9 percent, reflecting the seat's Labour-leaning history, Burnham's established local profile from prior service in the area, and Reform's challenge amid broader voter dissatisfaction with national politics. The June 18 vote remains close enough that tighter results stay live possibilities, with turnout, late swings on local issues such as immigration and economic concerns, and any final campaign developments able to narrow the gap.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$26,644Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election shows Labour candidate Andy Burnham holding a lead of roughly 6–10 points over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, consistent with surveys from Survation and others in late May and early June. This positioning underpins trader consensus around a Burnham margin exceeding 9 percent, reflecting the seat's Labour-leaning history, Burnham's established local profile from prior service in the area, and Reform's challenge amid broader voter dissatisfaction with national politics. The June 18 vote remains close enough that tighter results stay live possibilities, with turnout, late swings on local issues such as immigration and economic concerns, and any final campaign developments able to narrow the gap.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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