Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson vacated South Dakota's at-large House seat to pursue the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination, but trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% to hold the solidly red district amid a weak Democratic field featuring low-funded primary contenders like Nikki Gronli. Recent drivers include the March 31 filing deadline solidifying frontrunner AG Marty Jackley—who boasts $922,000 cash-on-hand, a March Emerson poll lead (51%-7% over James Bialota), Trump endorsement, and Casey Crabtree's withdrawal with backing—setting up a likely June 2 primary win. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, Jackley scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates favor the GOP in this R+16 PVI seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей SD-AL
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей SD-AL
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
92%
Демократическая партия
9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
92%
Демократическая партия
$1,722 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson vacated South Dakota's at-large House seat to pursue the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination, but trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% to hold the solidly red district amid a weak Democratic field featuring low-funded primary contenders like Nikki Gronli. Recent drivers include the March 31 filing deadline solidifying frontrunner AG Marty Jackley—who boasts $922,000 cash-on-hand, a March Emerson poll lead (51%-7% over James Bialota), Trump endorsement, and Casey Crabtree's withdrawal with backing—setting up a likely June 2 primary win. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, Jackley scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates favor the GOP in this R+16 PVI seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$1,722Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson vacated South Dakota's at-large House seat to pursue the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination, but trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% to hold the solidly red district amid a weak Democratic field featuring low-funded primary contenders like Nikki Gronli. Recent drivers include the March 31 filing deadline solidifying frontrunner AG Marty Jackley—who boasts $922,000 cash-on-hand, a March Emerson poll lead (51%-7% over James Bialota), Trump endorsement, and Casey Crabtree's withdrawal with backing—setting up a likely June 2 primary win. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, Jackley scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates favor the GOP in this R+16 PVI seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$1,722Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson vacated South Dakota's at-large House seat to pursue the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination, but trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% to hold the solidly red district amid a weak Democratic field featuring low-funded primary contenders like Nikki Gronli. Recent drivers include the March 31 filing deadline solidifying frontrunner AG Marty Jackley—who boasts $922,000 cash-on-hand, a March Emerson poll lead (51%-7% over James Bialota), Trump endorsement, and Casey Crabtree's withdrawal with backing—setting up a likely June 2 primary win. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, Jackley scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates favor the GOP in this R+16 PVI seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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