Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCA-06 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-06 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$5,614 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$5,614Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$5,614Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability of victory in California's 6th Congressional District House race, anchored by incumbent Ami Bera's entrenched position in a D+15 partisan-leaning seat encompassing Sacramento suburbs. Recent October polls, including internals and aggregators like Race to the WH, show Bera leading Republican challenger Michael Leiu by 20–25 points, fueled by Bera's fundraising dominance—over $1.5 million raised in Q3 FEC filings compared to Leiu's under $300,000. With no scandals or momentum-shifting events in the past 30 days and early voting now active ahead of November 5, upside scenarios for Republicans would require unprecedented GOP turnout surges or late-breaking Bera controversies, though historical data on similar safe Democratic incumbencies indicates minimal upset risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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