The U.S. Supreme Court's March 2, 2026, emergency ruling blocking a state-ordered redraw of New York's 11th Congressional District preserved the current boundaries favorable to incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis, solidifying trader consensus at 83.5% for a Republican victory amid recent redistricting uncertainty that had threatened the Staten Island-based seat. A state judge's March 19 decision permanently dismissing the challenge further stabilized the map, reinforcing the district's rightward shift driven by its working-class voters, including police and firefighters, where Malliotakis has won convincingly since flipping it in 2020. Democrats, with an emerging primary field including challenger Allison Ziogas, face uphill odds at 14% absent major shifts, ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-11 House Election Winner
NY-11 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,898 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$2,529 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The U.S. Supreme Court's March 2, 2026, emergency ruling blocking a state-ordered redraw of New York's 11th Congressional District preserved the current boundaries favorable to incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis, solidifying trader consensus at 83.5% for a Republican victory amid recent redistricting uncertainty that had threatened the Staten Island-based seat. A state judge's March 19 decision permanently dismissing the challenge further stabilized the map, reinforcing the district's rightward shift driven by its working-class voters, including police and firefighters, where Malliotakis has won convincingly since flipping it in 2020. Democrats, with an emerging primary field including challenger Allison Ziogas, face uphill odds at 14% absent major shifts, ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$8,427End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The U.S. Supreme Court's March 2, 2026, emergency ruling blocking a state-ordered redraw of New York's 11th Congressional District preserved the current boundaries favorable to incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis, solidifying trader consensus at 83.5% for a Republican victory amid recent redistricting uncertainty that had threatened the Staten Island-based seat. A state judge's March 19 decision permanently dismissing the challenge further stabilized the map, reinforcing the district's rightward shift driven by its working-class voters, including police and firefighters, where Malliotakis has won convincingly since flipping it in 2020. Democrats, with an emerging primary field including challenger Allison Ziogas, face uphill odds at 14% absent major shifts, ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,427End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The U.S. Supreme Court's March 2, 2026, emergency ruling blocking a state-ordered redraw of New York's 11th Congressional District preserved the current boundaries favorable to incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis, solidifying trader consensus at 83.5% for a Republican victory amid recent redistricting uncertainty that had threatened the Staten Island-based seat. A state judge's March 19 decision permanently dismissing the challenge further stabilized the map, reinforcing the district's rightward shift driven by its working-class voters, including police and firefighters, where Malliotakis has won convincingly since flipping it in 2020. Democrats, with an emerging primary field including challenger Allison Ziogas, face uphill odds at 14% absent major shifts, ahead of the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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