Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong reelection bid in the R+6 New York's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 74%, reflecting the seat's 12-point rightward shift in presidential voting from 2020 to 2024 and his 59.8% victory margin in 2024. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, Garbarino faces no Republican primary opposition, while Democrats field a crowded field—Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen—ahead of the June 23 primary, potentially splitting resources and complicating a unified challenge. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican, underscoring structural barriers despite national generic ballot tilts toward Democrats. Late scandals or primary surprises could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-02 House Election Winner
NY-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
27%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,059 Vol.
74%
Democratic Party
$4,528 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong reelection bid in the R+6 New York's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 74%, reflecting the seat's 12-point rightward shift in presidential voting from 2020 to 2024 and his 59.8% victory margin in 2024. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, Garbarino faces no Republican primary opposition, while Democrats field a crowded field—Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen—ahead of the June 23 primary, potentially splitting resources and complicating a unified challenge. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican, underscoring structural barriers despite national generic ballot tilts toward Democrats. Late scandals or primary surprises could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$6,587End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong reelection bid in the R+6 New York's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 74%, reflecting the seat's 12-point rightward shift in presidential voting from 2020 to 2024 and his 59.8% victory margin in 2024. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, Garbarino faces no Republican primary opposition, while Democrats field a crowded field—Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen—ahead of the June 23 primary, potentially splitting resources and complicating a unified challenge. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican, underscoring structural barriers despite national generic ballot tilts toward Democrats. Late scandals or primary surprises could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,587End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong reelection bid in the R+6 New York's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 74%, reflecting the seat's 12-point rightward shift in presidential voting from 2020 to 2024 and his 59.8% victory margin in 2024. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, Garbarino faces no Republican primary opposition, while Democrats field a crowded field—Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen—ahead of the June 23 primary, potentially splitting resources and complicating a unified challenge. Cook Political rates it Solid Republican, underscoring structural barriers despite national generic ballot tilts toward Democrats. Late scandals or primary surprises could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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