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Politics·Primaries

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Reilly Neill 87%

Michael BlackWolf 14.9%

Kathleen McLaughlin 5.8%

Michael Hummert 4.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Reilly Neill 87%

Michael BlackWolf 14.9%

Kathleen McLaughlin 5.8%

Michael Hummert 4.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Reilly Neill

$3,991 Vol.

87%

Michael BlackWolf

$51 Vol.

15%

Kathleen McLaughlin

$45 Vol.

6%

Michael Hummert

$0 Vol.

5%

Alani Bankhead

$937 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Reilly Neill leads trader consensus at 87% implied probability to win Montana's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 2, reflecting her edge as a former state representative with nearly two years of grassroots campaigning across the state's 1.1 million residents, bolstering name recognition and organization absent among challengers. Recent developments, including her March 9 appearance at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf dinner amid Republican Sen. Steve Daines' withdrawal and independent Seth Bodnar's entry, have reinforced her frontrunner status without sparking a contested scramble. An April 1 interview highlighting healthcare and agriculture policies further solidified support, while lesser-known rivals like Michael BlackWolf (19%) and Kathleen McLaughlin (8%) trail due to limited visibility and fundraising. Absent polls, markets price Neill's incumbency-like advantages in this low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana.

If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$5,024
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Reilly Neill leads trader consensus at 87% implied probability to win Montana's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 2, reflecting her edge as a former state representative with nearly two years of grassroots campaigning across the state's 1.1 million residents, bolstering name recognition and organization absent among challengers. Recent developments, including her March 9 appearance at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf dinner amid Republican Sen. Steve Daines' withdrawal and independent Seth Bodnar's entry, have reinforced her frontrunner status without sparking a contested scramble. An April 1 interview highlighting healthcare and agriculture policies further solidified support, while lesser-known rivals like Michael BlackWolf (19%) and Kathleen McLaughlin (8%) trail due to limited visibility and fundraising. Absent polls, markets price Neill's incumbency-like advantages in this low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana.

If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$5,024
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Reilly Neill" at 87%, followed by "Michael BlackWolf" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 3, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Reilly Neill" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael BlackWolf" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.