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Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Dan Koh 74%

Seth Moulton 11.9%

Kevin Larivee 7.4%

Tram Nguyen 4.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Dan Koh 74%

Seth Moulton 11.9%

Kevin Larivee 7.4%

Tram Nguyen 4.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Dan Koh

$3,508 Vol.

74%

Seth Moulton

$0 Vol.

12%

Kevin Larivee

$1,228 Vol.

7%

Tram Nguyen

$0 Vol.

5%

Diann Slavit Baylis

$0 Vol.

4%

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito

$0 Vol.

4%

Dominick Pangallo

$0 Vol.

3%

John Beccia

$0 Vol.

2%

Rick Jakious

$0 Vol.

2%

Rachel Creemers

$0 Vol.

2%

Mariah Lancaster

$0 Vol.

8%

Beth Andres-Beck

$1,341 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.A recent Emerson College Polling survey from late July showed challenger Dan Koh leading incumbent Seth Moulton 28% to 22% in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary, marking the first poll to put Koh ahead and driving trader consensus toward him at 74% implied probability. Koh's momentum stems from progressive endorsements and criticism of Moulton's centrist stances on issues like Israel policy, while Moulton holds incumbency advantages including name recognition and fundraising. Other contenders like Mariah Lancaster trail further amid limited polling data, with the September 3 primary approaching and no major events like debates scheduled to shift dynamics soon. Markets reflect skin-in-the-game bets on Koh's upset potential despite historical barriers to defeating House incumbents.

A recent Emerson College Polling survey from late July showed challenger Dan Koh leading incumbent Seth Moulton 28% to 22% in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary, marking the first poll to put Koh ahead and driving trader consensus toward him at 74% implied probability. Koh's momentum stems from progressive endorsements and criticism of Moulton's centrist stances on issues like Israel policy, while Moulton holds incumbency advantages including name recognition and fundraising. Other contenders like Mariah Lancaster trail further amid limited polling data, with the September 3 primary approaching and no major events like debates scheduled to shift dynamics soon. Markets reflect skin-in-the-game bets on Koh's upset potential despite historical barriers to defeating House incumbents.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.A recent Emerson College Polling survey from late July showed challenger Dan Koh leading incumbent Seth Moulton 28% to 22% in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary, marking the first poll to put Koh ahead and driving trader consensus toward him at 74% implied probability. Koh's momentum stems from progressive endorsements and criticism of Moulton's centrist stances on issues like Israel policy, while Moulton holds incumbency advantages including name recognition and fundraising. Other contenders like Mariah Lancaster trail further amid limited polling data, with the September 3 primary approaching and no major events like debates scheduled to shift dynamics soon. Markets reflect skin-in-the-game bets on Koh's upset potential despite historical barriers to defeating House incumbents.

A recent Emerson College Polling survey from late July showed challenger Dan Koh leading incumbent Seth Moulton 28% to 22% in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary, marking the first poll to put Koh ahead and driving trader consensus toward him at 74% implied probability. Koh's momentum stems from progressive endorsements and criticism of Moulton's centrist stances on issues like Israel policy, while Moulton holds incumbency advantages including name recognition and fundraising. Other contenders like Mariah Lancaster trail further amid limited polling data, with the September 3 primary approaching and no major events like debates scheduled to shift dynamics soon. Markets reflect skin-in-the-game bets on Koh's upset potential despite historical barriers to defeating House incumbents.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan Koh" at 74%, followed by "Seth Moulton" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Dan Koh" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Seth Moulton" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.