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Politics·Primaries

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Joe Baldacci 52%

Matthew Dunlap 28%

Jordan Wood 21%

Jared Golden 2.1%

Polymarket

$10,811 Vol.

Joe Baldacci 52%

Matthew Dunlap 28%

Jordan Wood 21%

Jared Golden 2.1%

Polymarket

$10,811 Vol.

Joe Baldacci

$3,293 Vol.

52%

Matthew Dunlap

$3,092 Vol.

28%

Jordan Wood

$1,879 Vol.

21%

Jared Golden

$2,547 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Joe Baldacci leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the ME-02 Democratic primary on June 9, reflecting his edge in a March Pan Atlantic Omnibus Poll (36%) amid an open field following incumbent Jared Golden's decision not to seek reelection. Baldacci's position draws on family political legacy—brother John was a former governor—and experience as ex-Bangor mayor, appealing to primary voters in this battleground district. State Auditor Matt Dunlap trails at 27.5% with statewide name recognition, while Jordan Wood's 20.5% share aligns with her Q1 fundraising lead ($810K raised), signaling momentum despite later entry. Golden's 1.8% odds underscore his non-candidacy, with turnout and ranked-choice dynamics key ahead of the vote.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,811
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Joe Baldacci leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the ME-02 Democratic primary on June 9, reflecting his edge in a March Pan Atlantic Omnibus Poll (36%) amid an open field following incumbent Jared Golden's decision not to seek reelection. Baldacci's position draws on family political legacy—brother John was a former governor—and experience as ex-Bangor mayor, appealing to primary voters in this battleground district. State Auditor Matt Dunlap trails at 27.5% with statewide name recognition, while Jordan Wood's 20.5% share aligns with her Q1 fundraising lead ($810K raised), signaling momentum despite later entry. Golden's 1.8% odds underscore his non-candidacy, with turnout and ranked-choice dynamics key ahead of the vote.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,811
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Baldacci" at 52%, followed by "Matthew Dunlap" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $10.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Joe Baldacci" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matthew Dunlap" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.