Despite US diplomatic overtures, including a 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed to Iran on March 23 and President Trump's claims of progress in indirect talks, the conflict shows no signs of abating, with trader consensus pricing a December 31 resolution at 83% implied probability amid persistent escalation. Israel intensified airstrikes on March 27 targeting Tehran residential areas and Isfahan nuclear facilities, while Iran launched missile barrages on Israeli military bases and US assets in Kuwait, depleting regional air defenses. The US extended its pause on strikes against Iranian energy sites but continues supporting Israeli operations, rejecting Tehran's precondition of halting attacks for negotiations. Upcoming potential mediators like Oman and Russia face slim odds of success without mutual de-escalation, as both sides signal readiness for prolonged military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$8,024,937 Vol.
May 15, 2026
March 31
2%
April 15
20%
April 7
6%
April 30
35%
May 15
46%
June 30
65%
December 31
84%
$8,024,937 Vol.
March 31
$4,211,724 Vol.
2%
April 15
$903,986 Vol.
20%
April 7
$76,737 Vol.
6%
April 30
$663,154 Vol.
35%
May 15
$1,162,798 Vol.
46%
June 30
$806,665 Vol.
65%
December 31
$199,873 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Despite US diplomatic overtures, including a 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed to Iran on March 23 and President Trump's claims of progress in indirect talks, the conflict shows no signs of abating, with trader consensus pricing a December 31 resolution at 83% implied probability amid persistent escalation. Israel intensified airstrikes on March 27 targeting Tehran residential areas and Isfahan nuclear facilities, while Iran launched missile barrages on Israeli military bases and US assets in Kuwait, depleting regional air defenses. The US extended its pause on strikes against Iranian energy sites but continues supporting Israeli operations, rejecting Tehran's precondition of halting attacks for negotiations. Upcoming potential mediators like Oman and Russia face slim odds of success without mutual de-escalation, as both sides signal readiness for prolonged military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$8,024,937End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Despite US diplomatic overtures, including a 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed to Iran on March 23 and President Trump's claims of progress in indirect talks, the conflict shows no signs of abating, with trader consensus pricing a December 31 resolution at 83% implied probability amid persistent escalation. Israel intensified airstrikes on March 27 targeting Tehran residential areas and Isfahan nuclear facilities, while Iran launched missile barrages on Israeli military bases and US assets in Kuwait, depleting regional air defenses. The US extended its pause on strikes against Iranian energy sites but continues supporting Israeli operations, rejecting Tehran's precondition of halting attacks for negotiations. Upcoming potential mediators like Oman and Russia face slim odds of success without mutual de-escalation, as both sides signal readiness for prolonged military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,024,937End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite US diplomatic overtures, including a 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed to Iran on March 23 and President Trump's claims of progress in indirect talks, the conflict shows no signs of abating, with trader consensus pricing a December 31 resolution at 83% implied probability amid persistent escalation. Israel intensified airstrikes on March 27 targeting Tehran residential areas and Isfahan nuclear facilities, while Iran launched missile barrages on Israeli military bases and US assets in Kuwait, depleting regional air defenses. The US extended its pause on strikes against Iranian energy sites but continues supporting Israeli operations, rejecting Tehran's precondition of halting attacks for negotiations. Upcoming potential mediators like Oman and Russia face slim odds of success without mutual de-escalation, as both sides signal readiness for prolonged military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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