Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan test facility, Khondab heavy water plant, and sites tied to plutonium production and uranium enrichment as of late March 2026, have significantly degraded capabilities, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes. IAEA's February report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground pre-strikes, but ongoing monitoring reveals no resumption of weaponization activities or test preparations amid the escalating conflict. Iran's official denials of nuclear weapons ambitions, combined with diplomatic pressures and military deterrence, underpin trader consensus implying an 89.5% chance of no test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or regime shifts could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$144,148 Vol.
$144,148 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$144,148 Vol.
$144,148 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan test facility, Khondab heavy water plant, and sites tied to plutonium production and uranium enrichment as of late March 2026, have significantly degraded capabilities, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes. IAEA's February report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground pre-strikes, but ongoing monitoring reveals no resumption of weaponization activities or test preparations amid the escalating conflict. Iran's official denials of nuclear weapons ambitions, combined with diplomatic pressures and military deterrence, underpin trader consensus implying an 89.5% chance of no test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or regime shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$144,148End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan test facility, Khondab heavy water plant, and sites tied to plutonium production and uranium enrichment as of late March 2026, have significantly degraded capabilities, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes. IAEA's February report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground pre-strikes, but ongoing monitoring reveals no resumption of weaponization activities or test preparations amid the escalating conflict. Iran's official denials of nuclear weapons ambitions, combined with diplomatic pressures and military deterrence, underpin trader consensus implying an 89.5% chance of no test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or regime shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,148End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan test facility, Khondab heavy water plant, and sites tied to plutonium production and uranium enrichment as of late March 2026, have significantly degraded capabilities, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes. IAEA's February report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground pre-strikes, but ongoing monitoring reveals no resumption of weaponization activities or test preparations amid the escalating conflict. Iran's official denials of nuclear weapons ambitions, combined with diplomatic pressures and military deterrence, underpin trader consensus implying an 89.5% chance of no test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or regime shifts could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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