Trader consensus prices exactly three countries—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen—at 96.3%, driven by Israel's repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon responding to ongoing rocket barrages, Iranian proxy targets across Syria including a major late-March Aleppo raid killing dozens, and Houthi sites in Yemen amid missile attacks on Israeli territory and shipping lanes. With March now complete and public reports confirming no actions against a fourth sovereign UN member state such as Iran or Iraq, traders exhibit strong confidence in this tally via skin-in-the-game pricing. Realistic challenges include late disclosures of unreported strikes, revised intelligence assessments, or contested attributions emerging before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel take military action against in March?
How many different countries will Israel take military action against in March?
$346,533 Vol.
$346,533 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
97%
≥4
3%
$346,533 Vol.
$346,533 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$102,928 Vol.
97%
≥4
$214,420 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices exactly three countries—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen—at 96.3%, driven by Israel's repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon responding to ongoing rocket barrages, Iranian proxy targets across Syria including a major late-March Aleppo raid killing dozens, and Houthi sites in Yemen amid missile attacks on Israeli territory and shipping lanes. With March now complete and public reports confirming no actions against a fourth sovereign UN member state such as Iran or Iraq, traders exhibit strong confidence in this tally via skin-in-the-game pricing. Realistic challenges include late disclosures of unreported strikes, revised intelligence assessments, or contested attributions emerging before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$346,533End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices exactly three countries—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen—at 96.3%, driven by Israel's repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon responding to ongoing rocket barrages, Iranian proxy targets across Syria including a major late-March Aleppo raid killing dozens, and Houthi sites in Yemen amid missile attacks on Israeli territory and shipping lanes. With March now complete and public reports confirming no actions against a fourth sovereign UN member state such as Iran or Iraq, traders exhibit strong confidence in this tally via skin-in-the-game pricing. Realistic challenges include late disclosures of unreported strikes, revised intelligence assessments, or contested attributions emerging before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$346,533End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices exactly three countries—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen—at 96.3%, driven by Israel's repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon responding to ongoing rocket barrages, Iranian proxy targets across Syria including a major late-March Aleppo raid killing dozens, and Houthi sites in Yemen amid missile attacks on Israeli territory and shipping lanes. With March now complete and public reports confirming no actions against a fourth sovereign UN member state such as Iran or Iraq, traders exhibit strong confidence in this tally via skin-in-the-game pricing. Realistic challenges include late disclosures of unreported strikes, revised intelligence assessments, or contested attributions emerging before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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