Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as of March 26 with targeting of military and nuclear sites, form the core driver of trader consensus favoring ≥4 countries at 51.5%, alongside routine operations in Syria, escalated attacks in Lebanon killing over 1,000 and displacing more than a million since early March, and likely responses to Yemen's Houthi missile launch at Israel on March 28—the first since the war began February 28. The 37.5% on exactly 3 reflects uncertainty over potential ceasefires amid U.S.-led talks, while lower odds for fewer strikes underscore persistent proxy threats from Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias. Markets hinge on escalation signals and diplomatic breakthroughs before April ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
≥4 52%
3 38%
2 8%
≤1 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
3%
2
8%
3
38%
≥4
52%
≥4 52%
3 38%
2 8%
≤1 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$310 Vol.
3%
2
$422 Vol.
8%
3
$786 Vol.
38%
≥4
$632 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as of March 26 with targeting of military and nuclear sites, form the core driver of trader consensus favoring ≥4 countries at 51.5%, alongside routine operations in Syria, escalated attacks in Lebanon killing over 1,000 and displacing more than a million since early March, and likely responses to Yemen's Houthi missile launch at Israel on March 28—the first since the war began February 28. The 37.5% on exactly 3 reflects uncertainty over potential ceasefires amid U.S.-led talks, while lower odds for fewer strikes underscore persistent proxy threats from Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias. Markets hinge on escalation signals and diplomatic breakthroughs before April ends.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,999End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as of March 26 with targeting of military and nuclear sites, form the core driver of trader consensus favoring ≥4 countries at 51.5%, alongside routine operations in Syria, escalated attacks in Lebanon killing over 1,000 and displacing more than a million since early March, and likely responses to Yemen's Houthi missile launch at Israel on March 28—the first since the war began February 28. The 37.5% on exactly 3 reflects uncertainty over potential ceasefires amid U.S.-led talks, while lower odds for fewer strikes underscore persistent proxy threats from Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias. Markets hinge on escalation signals and diplomatic breakthroughs before April ends.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,999End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as of March 26 with targeting of military and nuclear sites, form the core driver of trader consensus favoring ≥4 countries at 51.5%, alongside routine operations in Syria, escalated attacks in Lebanon killing over 1,000 and displacing more than a million since early March, and likely responses to Yemen's Houthi missile launch at Israel on March 28—the first since the war began February 28. The 37.5% on exactly 3 reflects uncertainty over potential ceasefires amid U.S.-led talks, while lower odds for fewer strikes underscore persistent proxy threats from Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias. Markets hinge on escalation signals and diplomatic breakthroughs before April ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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