Trader consensus favors Israel striking four distinct countries in 2026 at 36%, with five close behind at 31.6%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria amid the U.S.-Israel war launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over escalation to Yemen, where Houthis escalated with ballistic missiles at Israel on March 29 following Israel's March 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak, potentially adding a fifth nation. Ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Iraq/Syria sustain the baseline, while stalled ceasefire talks and diplomatic pressures could limit further expansion or prompt de-escalation before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4 35.9%
5 31.6%
3 14.2%
6 12.6%
$6,296,716 Vol.
$6,296,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
14%
4
36%
5
32%
6
13%
7
2%
8
2%
9
2%
10
2%
11
<1%
12
1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 35.9%
5 31.6%
3 14.2%
6 12.6%
$6,296,716 Vol.
$6,296,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
$1,888,692 Vol.
14%
4
$1,140,053 Vol.
36%
5
$452,535 Vol.
32%
6
$625,901 Vol.
13%
7
$584,608 Vol.
2%
8
$499,138 Vol.
2%
9
$198,553 Vol.
2%
10
$375,323 Vol.
2%
11
$89,502 Vol.
<1%
12
$59,354 Vol.
1%
13
$129,270 Vol.
<1%
14
$94,590 Vol.
<1%
15+
$33,630 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking four distinct countries in 2026 at 36%, with five close behind at 31.6%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria amid the U.S.-Israel war launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over escalation to Yemen, where Houthis escalated with ballistic missiles at Israel on March 29 following Israel's March 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak, potentially adding a fifth nation. Ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Iraq/Syria sustain the baseline, while stalled ceasefire talks and diplomatic pressures could limit further expansion or prompt de-escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,296,716End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking four distinct countries in 2026 at 36%, with five close behind at 31.6%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria amid the U.S.-Israel war launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over escalation to Yemen, where Houthis escalated with ballistic missiles at Israel on March 29 following Israel's March 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak, potentially adding a fifth nation. Ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Iraq/Syria sustain the baseline, while stalled ceasefire talks and diplomatic pressures could limit further expansion or prompt de-escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,296,716End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Israel striking four distinct countries in 2026 at 36%, with five close behind at 31.6%, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria amid the U.S.-Israel war launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military targets. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over escalation to Yemen, where Houthis escalated with ballistic missiles at Israel on March 29 following Israel's March 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak, potentially adding a fifth nation. Ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Iraq/Syria sustain the baseline, while stalled ceasefire talks and diplomatic pressures could limit further expansion or prompt de-escalation before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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