Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated regional tensions on March 28 by launching their first ballistic missile strikes on Israel since the 2025 Gaza ceasefire, coordinating with Iran and Hezbollah amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Israel intercepted subsequent attacks, including a third wave reported days later, while Houthis threatened Red Sea strait closure if Gulf states join anti-Iran efforts and vowed direct intervention against perceived escalations. US officials signaled plans to target top Houthi leaders, but no airstrikes or military actions by the US or Israel against Yemen have materialized as of early April, reflecting trader consensus on restrained responses focused on Iran amid shipping disruption risks and diplomatic monitoring. Upcoming Houthi operations or Red Sea incidents could prompt shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS/Israel military action against Yemen by...?
US/Israel military action against Yemen by...?
$470,489 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 1
No
March 2
No
March 3
No
March 4
No
March 7
No
March 14
No
March 31
No
$470,489 Vol.
March 1
$0 Vol.
No
March 2
$0 Vol.
No
March 3
$0 Vol.
No
March 4
$0 Vol.
No
March 7
$0 Vol.
No
March 14
$0 Vol.
No
March 31
$470,489 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated regional tensions on March 28 by launching their first ballistic missile strikes on Israel since the 2025 Gaza ceasefire, coordinating with Iran and Hezbollah amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Israel intercepted subsequent attacks, including a third wave reported days later, while Houthis threatened Red Sea strait closure if Gulf states join anti-Iran efforts and vowed direct intervention against perceived escalations. US officials signaled plans to target top Houthi leaders, but no airstrikes or military actions by the US or Israel against Yemen have materialized as of early April, reflecting trader consensus on restrained responses focused on Iran amid shipping disruption risks and diplomatic monitoring. Upcoming Houthi operations or Red Sea incidents could prompt shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$470,489End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated regional tensions on March 28 by launching their first ballistic missile strikes on Israel since the 2025 Gaza ceasefire, coordinating with Iran and Hezbollah amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Israel intercepted subsequent attacks, including a third wave reported days later, while Houthis threatened Red Sea strait closure if Gulf states join anti-Iran efforts and vowed direct intervention against perceived escalations. US officials signaled plans to target top Houthi leaders, but no airstrikes or military actions by the US or Israel against Yemen have materialized as of early April, reflecting trader consensus on restrained responses focused on Iran amid shipping disruption risks and diplomatic monitoring. Upcoming Houthi operations or Red Sea incidents could prompt shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$470,489End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated regional tensions on March 28 by launching their first ballistic missile strikes on Israel since the 2025 Gaza ceasefire, coordinating with Iran and Hezbollah amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Israel intercepted subsequent attacks, including a third wave reported days later, while Houthis threatened Red Sea strait closure if Gulf states join anti-Iran efforts and vowed direct intervention against perceived escalations. US officials signaled plans to target top Houthi leaders, but no airstrikes or military actions by the US or Israel against Yemen have materialized as of early April, reflecting trader consensus on restrained responses focused on Iran amid shipping disruption risks and diplomatic monitoring. Upcoming Houthi operations or Red Sea incidents could prompt shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions