Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters holds a commanding trader consensus at 93% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 50th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index and solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball following the 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. Peters announced his re-election bid on February 26 and boasts over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers. Recent filings confirm a crowded Democratic primary field including Tim Arnous and Aishwarya Mitra, against lone Republican Steve Cohen, a former TV news executive who entered March 13. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but scenarios like a national GOP midterm wave, Peters scandal, or intra-Democratic vote split yielding a weaker general nominee could challenge this outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-50 House Election Winner
CA-50 House Election Winner
$18,281 Vol.
$18,281 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$18,281 Vol.
$18,281 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,332 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$4,949 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters holds a commanding trader consensus at 93% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 50th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index and solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball following the 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. Peters announced his re-election bid on February 26 and boasts over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers. Recent filings confirm a crowded Democratic primary field including Tim Arnous and Aishwarya Mitra, against lone Republican Steve Cohen, a former TV news executive who entered March 13. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but scenarios like a national GOP midterm wave, Peters scandal, or intra-Democratic vote split yielding a weaker general nominee could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$18,281End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters holds a commanding trader consensus at 93% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 50th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index and solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball following the 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. Peters announced his re-election bid on February 26 and boasts over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers. Recent filings confirm a crowded Democratic primary field including Tim Arnous and Aishwarya Mitra, against lone Republican Steve Cohen, a former TV news executive who entered March 13. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but scenarios like a national GOP midterm wave, Peters scandal, or intra-Democratic vote split yielding a weaker general nominee could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,281End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters holds a commanding trader consensus at 93% implied probability to lead his party to victory in California's 50th Congressional District House race, anchored by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index and solid Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball following the 2025 Proposition 50 redistricting. Peters announced his re-election bid on February 26 and boasts over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challengers. Recent filings confirm a crowded Democratic primary field including Tim Arnous and Aishwarya Mitra, against lone Republican Steve Cohen, a former TV news executive who entered March 13. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but scenarios like a national GOP midterm wave, Peters scandal, or intra-Democratic vote split yielding a weaker general nominee could challenge this outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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