Valerie Foushee holds a commanding lead in the NC-04 House race due to the district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. As the incumbent who won 71.9% in 2024, she secured the nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary against Nida Allam. Republican nominee Max Ganorkar, a perennial candidate with limited fundraising, faces structural barriers in a district encompassing Durham and Orange counties plus portions of Chatham and Wake. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Foushee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though historical patterns in similar seats suggest limited impact.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-04 House Election Winner
NC-04 House Election Winner
$46,850 Vol.
$46,850 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Valerie Foushee (D)
96%
Max Ganorkar (R)
3%
$46,850 Vol.
$46,850 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Valerie Foushee (D)
$15,586 Vol.
96%
Max Ganorkar (R)
$31,264 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Valerie Foushee holds a commanding lead in the NC-04 House race due to the district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. As the incumbent who won 71.9% in 2024, she secured the nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary against Nida Allam. Republican nominee Max Ganorkar, a perennial candidate with limited fundraising, faces structural barriers in a district encompassing Durham and Orange counties plus portions of Chatham and Wake. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Foushee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though historical patterns in similar seats suggest limited impact.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$46,850End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Valerie Foushee holds a commanding lead in the NC-04 House race due to the district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. As the incumbent who won 71.9% in 2024, she secured the nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary against Nida Allam. Republican nominee Max Ganorkar, a perennial candidate with limited fundraising, faces structural barriers in a district encompassing Durham and Orange counties plus portions of Chatham and Wake. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Foushee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though historical patterns in similar seats suggest limited impact.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,850End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Valerie Foushee holds a commanding lead in the NC-04 House race due to the district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. As the incumbent who won 71.9% in 2024, she secured the nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary against Nida Allam. Republican nominee Max Ganorkar, a perennial candidate with limited fundraising, faces structural barriers in a district encompassing Durham and Orange counties plus portions of Chatham and Wake. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Foushee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though historical patterns in similar seats suggest limited impact.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions