**Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain CA-05, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean across eastern Sierra Nevada counties from Alpine to Inyo.** His longevity since 2008, bolstered by robust fundraising exceeding $600,000 and no serious GOP primary challengers, underpins the lopsided odds. Recent filings for the June 2 top-two primary introduced at least four Democrats—including Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Paul Danbom—fragmenting their vote and positioning McClintock to advance alongside one opponent for the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls yet but historical incumbency advantages in safe seats sustaining the heavy favoritism absent late surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-05 House Election Winner
CA-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,849 Vol.
83%
Democratic Party
$1,412 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain CA-05, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean across eastern Sierra Nevada counties from Alpine to Inyo.** His longevity since 2008, bolstered by robust fundraising exceeding $600,000 and no serious GOP primary challengers, underpins the lopsided odds. Recent filings for the June 2 top-two primary introduced at least four Democrats—including Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Paul Danbom—fragmenting their vote and positioning McClintock to advance alongside one opponent for the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls yet but historical incumbency advantages in safe seats sustaining the heavy favoritism absent late surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,261End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain CA-05, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean across eastern Sierra Nevada counties from Alpine to Inyo.** His longevity since 2008, bolstered by robust fundraising exceeding $600,000 and no serious GOP primary challengers, underpins the lopsided odds. Recent filings for the June 2 top-two primary introduced at least four Democrats—including Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Paul Danbom—fragmenting their vote and positioning McClintock to advance alongside one opponent for the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls yet but historical incumbency advantages in safe seats sustaining the heavy favoritism absent late surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,261End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain CA-05, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean across eastern Sierra Nevada counties from Alpine to Inyo.** His longevity since 2008, bolstered by robust fundraising exceeding $600,000 and no serious GOP primary challengers, underpins the lopsided odds. Recent filings for the June 2 top-two primary introduced at least four Democrats—including Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Paul Danbom—fragmenting their vote and positioning McClintock to advance alongside one opponent for the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, with no polls yet but historical incumbency advantages in safe seats sustaining the heavy favoritism absent late surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions