Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 that shifted the district from Republican stronghold to Democratic lean—Kamala Harris would have carried it 54.5%-42.3% in 2024—adding blue-leaning Sonoma County while shedding conservative areas. Incumbent Doug LaMalfa's January death triggered a special election on the old R+22 map likely yielding a short-term GOP hold via Assemblyman James Gallagher, but the full-term race uses the new boundaries. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire leads Gallagher 33%-30% in a late-February poll among regular election voters, bolstered by his fundraising edge, recent town halls, and March 11 filing deadline entries; a top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 could pit McGuire against Gallagher in November. GOP upset possible via McGuire scandal, Democratic vote split with Audrey Denney, or depressed turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$21,702 Vol.
$21,702 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$21,702 Vol.
$21,702 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,912 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$7,790 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 that shifted the district from Republican stronghold to Democratic lean—Kamala Harris would have carried it 54.5%-42.3% in 2024—adding blue-leaning Sonoma County while shedding conservative areas. Incumbent Doug LaMalfa's January death triggered a special election on the old R+22 map likely yielding a short-term GOP hold via Assemblyman James Gallagher, but the full-term race uses the new boundaries. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire leads Gallagher 33%-30% in a late-February poll among regular election voters, bolstered by his fundraising edge, recent town halls, and March 11 filing deadline entries; a top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 could pit McGuire against Gallagher in November. GOP upset possible via McGuire scandal, Democratic vote split with Audrey Denney, or depressed turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$21,702End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 that shifted the district from Republican stronghold to Democratic lean—Kamala Harris would have carried it 54.5%-42.3% in 2024—adding blue-leaning Sonoma County while shedding conservative areas. Incumbent Doug LaMalfa's January death triggered a special election on the old R+22 map likely yielding a short-term GOP hold via Assemblyman James Gallagher, but the full-term race uses the new boundaries. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire leads Gallagher 33%-30% in a late-February poll among regular election voters, bolstered by his fundraising edge, recent town halls, and March 11 filing deadline entries; a top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 could pit McGuire against Gallagher in November. GOP upset possible via McGuire scandal, Democratic vote split with Audrey Denney, or depressed turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,702End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the November 2026 general election, driven by mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 that shifted the district from Republican stronghold to Democratic lean—Kamala Harris would have carried it 54.5%-42.3% in 2024—adding blue-leaning Sonoma County while shedding conservative areas. Incumbent Doug LaMalfa's January death triggered a special election on the old R+22 map likely yielding a short-term GOP hold via Assemblyman James Gallagher, but the full-term race uses the new boundaries. State Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire leads Gallagher 33%-30% in a late-February poll among regular election voters, bolstered by his fundraising edge, recent town halls, and March 11 filing deadline entries; a top-two nonpartisan primary on June 2 could pit McGuire against Gallagher in November. GOP upset possible via McGuire scandal, Democratic vote split with Audrey Denney, or depressed turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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