Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the June 2, 2026, special nonpartisan primary election—advancing top two to a runoff if needed—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Sen. Mike McGuire (D), endorsed by the California Democratic Party on February 23 and the Yurok Tribe on February 25, leads as frontrunner with superior fundraising and organization suited to low-turnout specials. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the rural northern district leftward, eroding its prior Republican lean. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's Trump endorsement has not closed the gap. Challenges could arise from Democratic vote-splitting with challengers like Audrey Denney, GOP turnout surge, or McGuire scandal before primary day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
5%
$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,784 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the June 2, 2026, special nonpartisan primary election—advancing top two to a runoff if needed—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Sen. Mike McGuire (D), endorsed by the California Democratic Party on February 23 and the Yurok Tribe on February 25, leads as frontrunner with superior fundraising and organization suited to low-turnout specials. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the rural northern district leftward, eroding its prior Republican lean. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's Trump endorsement has not closed the gap. Challenges could arise from Democratic vote-splitting with challengers like Audrey Denney, GOP turnout surge, or McGuire scandal before primary day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,784End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the June 2, 2026, special nonpartisan primary election—advancing top two to a runoff if needed—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Sen. Mike McGuire (D), endorsed by the California Democratic Party on February 23 and the Yurok Tribe on February 25, leads as frontrunner with superior fundraising and organization suited to low-turnout specials. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the rural northern district leftward, eroding its prior Republican lean. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's Trump endorsement has not closed the gap. Challenges could arise from Democratic vote-splitting with challengers like Audrey Denney, GOP turnout surge, or McGuire scandal before primary day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,784End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the June 2, 2026, special nonpartisan primary election—advancing top two to a runoff if needed—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Sen. Mike McGuire (D), endorsed by the California Democratic Party on February 23 and the Yurok Tribe on February 25, leads as frontrunner with superior fundraising and organization suited to low-turnout specials. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the rural northern district leftward, eroding its prior Republican lean. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's Trump endorsement has not closed the gap. Challenges could arise from Democratic vote-splitting with challengers like Audrey Denney, GOP turnout surge, or McGuire scandal before primary day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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