Recent polls from mid-March 2026, such as AtlasIntel showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% and Lula da Silva at 46.6% in a simulated runoff alongside tight first-round matchups around 37-46% each, underscore a razor-thin race driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins. Incumbent Lula leads most first-round surveys by 1-5 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, bolstered by PT base turnout but pressured by right-wing consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion amid economic headwinds and corruption allegations. Outcomes like Lula <5% (37%) and Flávio <5% (24%) reflect this deadlock, with low odds for outright wins or larger gaps signaling high runoff likelihood on October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% on October 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 27%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8.6%
$14,107 Vol.
$14,107 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
9%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
24%
Renan Santos Victory
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
2%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
2%
Other
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 27%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8.6%
$14,107 Vol.
$14,107 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,567 Vol.
9%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,330 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$1,722 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,590 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$695 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$688 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,489 Vol.
24%
Renan Santos Victory
$833 Vol.
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$531 Vol.
2%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$818 Vol.
2%
Other
$845 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-March 2026, such as AtlasIntel showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% and Lula da Silva at 46.6% in a simulated runoff alongside tight first-round matchups around 37-46% each, underscore a razor-thin race driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins. Incumbent Lula leads most first-round surveys by 1-5 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, bolstered by PT base turnout but pressured by right-wing consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion amid economic headwinds and corruption allegations. Outcomes like Lula <5% (37%) and Flávio <5% (24%) reflect this deadlock, with low odds for outright wins or larger gaps signaling high runoff likelihood on October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% on October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$14,107End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-March 2026, such as AtlasIntel showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% and Lula da Silva at 46.6% in a simulated runoff alongside tight first-round matchups around 37-46% each, underscore a razor-thin race driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins. Incumbent Lula leads most first-round surveys by 1-5 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, bolstered by PT base turnout but pressured by right-wing consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion amid economic headwinds and corruption allegations. Outcomes like Lula <5% (37%) and Flávio <5% (24%) reflect this deadlock, with low odds for outright wins or larger gaps signaling high runoff likelihood on October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% on October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,107End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from mid-March 2026, such as AtlasIntel showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% and Lula da Silva at 46.6% in a simulated runoff alongside tight first-round matchups around 37-46% each, underscore a razor-thin race driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins. Incumbent Lula leads most first-round surveys by 1-5 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, bolstered by PT base turnout but pressured by right-wing consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion amid economic headwinds and corruption allegations. Outcomes like Lula <5% (37%) and Flávio <5% (24%) reflect this deadlock, with low odds for outright wins or larger gaps signaling high runoff likelihood on October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% on October 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
56%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
16%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions