Polls aggregator trends position the CDU as frontrunner for the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with consistent Sonntagsfragen from INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February) showing it at 22%, ahead of AfD (17%), SPD (16%), Grüne (15%), and Linke (15%). This fragmented field under proportional representation amplifies CDU's stable lead into trader consensus favoring it at 50.5% implied probability, while AfD trails at 13.6%. No major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days, but national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's February party re-election and recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl gains sustain the positioning, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 51%
AfD 13.7%
Grüne 11.8%
Linke 11%
$2,082,817 Vol.
$2,082,817 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
51%
AfD
14%
Grüne
12%
Linke
11%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 51%
AfD 13.7%
Grüne 11.8%
Linke 11%
$2,082,817 Vol.
$2,082,817 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,017 Vol.
51%
AfD
$1,728,211 Vol.
14%
Grüne
$23,102 Vol.
12%
Linke
$8,237 Vol.
11%
SPD
$284,944 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,866 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Polls aggregator trends position the CDU as frontrunner for the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with consistent Sonntagsfragen from INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February) showing it at 22%, ahead of AfD (17%), SPD (16%), Grüne (15%), and Linke (15%). This fragmented field under proportional representation amplifies CDU's stable lead into trader consensus favoring it at 50.5% implied probability, while AfD trails at 13.6%. No major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days, but national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's February party re-election and recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl gains sustain the positioning, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$2,082,817End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Polls aggregator trends position the CDU as frontrunner for the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with consistent Sonntagsfragen from INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February) showing it at 22%, ahead of AfD (17%), SPD (16%), Grüne (15%), and Linke (15%). This fragmented field under proportional representation amplifies CDU's stable lead into trader consensus favoring it at 50.5% implied probability, while AfD trails at 13.6%. No major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days, but national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's February party re-election and recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl gains sustain the positioning, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,082,817End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polls aggregator trends position the CDU as frontrunner for the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, with consistent Sonntagsfragen from INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February) showing it at 22%, ahead of AfD (17%), SPD (16%), Grüne (15%), and Linke (15%). This fragmented field under proportional representation amplifies CDU's stable lead into trader consensus favoring it at 50.5% implied probability, while AfD trails at 13.6%. No major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days, but national CDU momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's February party re-election and recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl gains sustain the positioning, with coalition negotiations likely post-vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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