Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

James Dees 39%

Jerry Carl 39%

John Mills 39%

Rhett Marques 38%

Polymarket
NEW

$18,527 Vol.

James Dees 39%

Jerry Carl 39%

John Mills 39%

Rhett Marques 38%

Polymarket
NEW

$18,527 Vol.

James Dees

$0 Vol.

39%

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

39%

John Mills

$14,754 Vol.

39%

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

38%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

26%

Austin Sidwell

$13,353 Vol.

16%

James Richardson

$5,174 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on March 5, trader consensus clusters around incumbent Jerry Carl (39.5%) and challengers James Dees, Rhett Marques, and John Mills (all 39%), reflecting a fragmented eight-candidate field with no decisive frontrunner after sparse polling, the latest from late January showing Carl's modest lead eroding amid low name recognition. Carl's incumbency, NRA endorsement, and fundraising edge—over $300,000 cash-on-hand per recent FEC filings—offset challenger attacks on his bipartisan votes, but split anti-incumbent support keeps probabilities tight. Absent major catalysts like a Trump endorsement or pre-primary poll, early voting starting February 26 could tip dynamics toward a top-two runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,527
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on March 5, trader consensus clusters around incumbent Jerry Carl (39.5%) and challengers James Dees, Rhett Marques, and John Mills (all 39%), reflecting a fragmented eight-candidate field with no decisive frontrunner after sparse polling, the latest from late January showing Carl's modest lead eroding amid low name recognition. Carl's incumbency, NRA endorsement, and fundraising edge—over $300,000 cash-on-hand per recent FEC filings—offset challenger attacks on his bipartisan votes, but split anti-incumbent support keeps probabilities tight. Absent major catalysts like a Trump endorsement or pre-primary poll, early voting starting February 26 could tip dynamics toward a top-two runoff.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on March 5, trader consensus clusters around incumbent Jerry Carl (39.5%) and challengers James Dees, Rhett Marques, and John Mills (all 39%), reflecting a fragmented eight-candidate field with no decisive frontrunner after sparse polling, the latest from late January showing Carl's modest lead eroding amid low name recognition. Carl's incumbency, NRA endorsement, and fundraising edge—over $300,000 cash-on-hand per recent FEC filings—offset challenger attacks on his bipartisan votes, but split anti-incumbent support keeps probabilities tight. Absent major catalysts like a Trump endorsement or pre-primary poll, early voting starting February 26 could tip dynamics toward a top-two runoff.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "James Dees" at 39%, followed by "Jerry Carl" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $18.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "James Dees" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jerry Carl" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.