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Elections·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

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Elections·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 63%

Saikat Chakrabarti 31.0%

Connie Chan 8.7%

Jingchao Xiong <1%

Polymarket

$330,264 Vol.

Scott Wiener 63%

Saikat Chakrabarti 31.0%

Connie Chan 8.7%

Jingchao Xiong <1%

Polymarket

$330,264 Vol.

Scott Wiener

$33,322 Vol.

63%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$17,837 Vol.

25%

Connie Chan

$200,465 Vol.

9%

Jingchao Xiong

$39,075 Vol.

1%

Darren Helton

$17,256 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$8,610 Vol.

<1%

Cole Bettles

$13,697 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 62.5% implied probability to place first in California's 11th Congressional District's June 2 top-two primary, driven by his dominant fundraising, California Democratic Party endorsement, and a March 31 Data for Progress poll of likely voters showing him at 32% versus Saikat Chakrabarti's 20% and Supervisor Connie Chan's 17% amid 18% undecideds. The poll, commissioned by Chakrabarti's campaign and fielded March 3-12, underscores Wiener's edge despite Justice Democrats' recent endorsement of the progressive challenger and sharp differences aired in a March 31 debate on taxes, transit, and housing. San Francisco establishment pushback, including new PAC spending opposing Chakrabarti, reinforces Wiener's frontrunner status in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$330,264
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 62.5% implied probability to place first in California's 11th Congressional District's June 2 top-two primary, driven by his dominant fundraising, California Democratic Party endorsement, and a March 31 Data for Progress poll of likely voters showing him at 32% versus Saikat Chakrabarti's 20% and Supervisor Connie Chan's 17% amid 18% undecideds. The poll, commissioned by Chakrabarti's campaign and fielded March 3-12, underscores Wiener's edge despite Justice Democrats' recent endorsement of the progressive challenger and sharp differences aired in a March 31 debate on taxes, transit, and housing. San Francisco establishment pushback, including new PAC spending opposing Chakrabarti, reinforces Wiener's frontrunner status in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$330,264
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scott Wiener" at 63%, followed by "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" has generated $330.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" is "Scott Wiener" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.