Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Austin Sidwell 42%

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Rhett Marques 41%

Polymarket
NEW

Austin Sidwell 42%

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Rhett Marques 41%

Polymarket
NEW

Austin Sidwell

$0 Vol.

42%

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

41%

James Dees

$0 Vol.

41%

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

41%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

41%

John Mills

$0 Vol.

41%

James Richardson

$5,174 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on March 5, trader consensus reflects a fragmented seven-way field with no clear frontrunner, as top candidates hover around 41% amid scarce recent polling and undecided voters split among the incumbent Rep. Jerry Carl, Trump-endorsed challenger Austin Sidwell, veteran James Dees, and others. Carl holds incumbency advantages and stronger fundraising per latest FEC reports, but faces establishment-vs-MAGA tensions, with Sidwell gaining grassroots momentum from his February Trump nod without decisive separation. The race's tightness stems from absent head-to-head polls since late 2023 and heavy ad spending across contenders; late endorsements from Gov. Ivey or Sens. Tuberville and Britt, or a final pre-primary survey, could consolidate support and trigger a runoff on April 16 if no majority emerges.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,174
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on March 5, trader consensus reflects a fragmented seven-way field with no clear frontrunner, as top candidates hover around 41% amid scarce recent polling and undecided voters split among the incumbent Rep. Jerry Carl, Trump-endorsed challenger Austin Sidwell, veteran James Dees, and others. Carl holds incumbency advantages and stronger fundraising per latest FEC reports, but faces establishment-vs-MAGA tensions, with Sidwell gaining grassroots momentum from his February Trump nod without decisive separation. The race's tightness stems from absent head-to-head polls since late 2023 and heavy ad spending across contenders; late endorsements from Gov. Ivey or Sens. Tuberville and Britt, or a final pre-primary survey, could consolidate support and trigger a runoff on April 16 if no majority emerges.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on March 5, trader consensus reflects a fragmented seven-way field with no clear frontrunner, as top candidates hover around 41% amid scarce recent polling and undecided voters split among the incumbent Rep. Jerry Carl, Trump-endorsed challenger Austin Sidwell, veteran James Dees, and others. Carl holds incumbency advantages and stronger fundraising per latest FEC reports, but faces establishment-vs-MAGA tensions, with Sidwell gaining grassroots momentum from his February Trump nod without decisive separation. The race's tightness stems from absent head-to-head polls since late 2023 and heavy ad spending across contenders; late endorsements from Gov. Ivey or Sens. Tuberville and Britt, or a final pre-primary survey, could consolidate support and trigger a runoff on April 16 if no majority emerges.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will James Kingston be the Republican nominee for GA-01?

49%
Market icon

Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

71%
Market icon

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

87%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Austin Sidwell" at 42%, followed by "Jerry Carl" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Austin Sidwell" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jerry Carl" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.